Erie Indemnity Stock Future Price Prediction

ERIE
 Stock
  

USD 282.51  1.17  0.42%   

Erie Indemnity stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Erie Indemnity shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Erie Indemnity's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Erie Indemnity and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Erie Indemnity's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Erie Indemnity, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Erie Indemnity Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Erie Indemnity based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Erie Indemnity stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Erie Indemnity over a specific investment horizon.Using Erie Indemnity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Erie Indemnity from the perspective of Erie Indemnity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Erie Indemnity PPandE Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's PPandE Turnover was at 25.88. The current year Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to grow to 13.30, whereas Book Value per Share is forecasted to decline to 26.54.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Erie Indemnity. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Erie Indemnity to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Erie Indemnity because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Erie Indemnity after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 281.29  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Erie Indemnity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Erie Indemnity in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
253.21312.47314.34
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
277.61279.48281.35
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.775.775.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Erie Indemnity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Erie Indemnity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Erie Indemnity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Erie Indemnity.

Erie Indemnity After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Erie Indemnity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Erie Indemnity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Erie Indemnity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Erie Indemnity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Erie Indemnity's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Erie Indemnity's historical news coverage. Erie Indemnity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 279.42 and 283.16, respectively. We have considered Erie Indemnity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 282.51
279.42
Downside
281.29
After-hype Price
283.16
Upside
Erie Indemnity is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Erie Indemnity is based on 3 months time horizon.

Erie Indemnity Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Erie Indemnity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Erie Indemnity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Erie Indemnity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.40  1.84   0.05    0.46  4 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
282.51281.290.02 
1,533  

Erie Indemnity Hype Timeline

Erie Indemnity is currently traded for 282.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.46. Erie Indemnity is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 281.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.02% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.4%. The volatility of related hype on Erie Indemnity is about 160.78% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 282.05. About 46.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.51. Erie Indemnity last dividend was issued on the 4th of October 2022. The entity had 3:1 split on the 13th of May 1996. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Continue to Erie Indemnity Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Erie Indemnity Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Erie Indemnity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Erie Indemnity's future price movements. Getting to know how Erie Indemnity rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Erie Indemnity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ETSYEtsy Inc(1.04) 9 per month 3.73  0.09  6.13 (6.32)  20.97 
BUDAnheuser Busch Inbev 0.52 5 per month 1.56  0.1  3.45 (2.77)  8.01 
BUDFFAnheuser-Busch InBev SANV 0.00 0 per month 1.53  0.1  3.65 (2.86)  7.80 
LINLinde PLC(4.50) 7 per month 1.22  0.09  3.81 (2.02)  7.54 
HPQHP Inc(0.17) 8 per month 0.00 (0.06)  4.77 (4.16)  10.27 
HDHome Depot(2.29) 8 per month 1.80  0.0392  2.81 (2.50)  11.25 
CVXChevron Corp(1.64) 7 per month 1.90  0.05  3.37 (2.91)  9.61 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp(0.23) 7 per month 1.76  0.06  3.65 (2.91)  9.75 
BACBank Of America(0.95) 1 per month 1.69  0.0109  4.14 (2.89)  8.90 

Erie Indemnity Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Erie Indemnity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Erie Indemnity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Erie Indemnity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Erie Indemnity Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Erie Indemnity stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Erie Indemnity, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Erie Indemnity based on analysis of Erie Indemnity hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Erie Indemnity's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Erie Indemnity's related companies.
 2017 2018 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover22.5922.5125.8827.21
Calculated Tax Rate37.622.3825.7431.75

Story Coverage note for Erie Indemnity

The number of cover stories for Erie Indemnity depends on current market conditions and Erie Indemnity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Erie Indemnity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Erie Indemnity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Erie Indemnity Short Properties

Erie Indemnity's future price predictability will typically decrease when Erie Indemnity's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Erie Indemnity often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Erie Indemnity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Erie Indemnity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding52309844.00
Cash And Short Term Investments222098000.00
Continue to Erie Indemnity Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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Is Erie Indemnity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Erie Indemnity. If investors know Erie Indemnity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Erie Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Erie Indemnity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Erie Indemnity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Erie Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Erie Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Erie Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Erie Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Erie Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Erie Indemnity value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Erie Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.