Evolution Stock Future Price Prediction

EPM
 Stock
  

USD 6.73  0.02  0.30%   

Evolution Petroleum stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Evolution Petroleum shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Evolution Petroleum's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Evolution Petroleum and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Evolution Petroleum's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Evolution Petroleum, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Evolution Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Evolution Petroleum based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Evolution stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Evolution Petroleum over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.133
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.38
Wall Street Target Price
10.25
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.38
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
1.108
Using Evolution Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evolution Petroleum from the perspective of Evolution Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Evolution Petroleum using Evolution Petroleum's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Evolution using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Evolution Petroleum's stock price.
Evolution Petroleum Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated at 15.24. Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to hike to 22.25 this year, although the value of EBITDA Margin will most likely fall to 32.74.

Evolution Petroleum Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Evolution Petroleum's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Evolution. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Evolution Petroleum stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Evolution Petroleum may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Evolution Petroleum and may potentially protect profits, hedge Evolution Petroleum with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
6.9762
Short Percent
0.0071
Short Ratio
0.96
Shares Short Prior Month
270.8 K
50 Day MA
7.6294
Shares Short
221.5 K

Evolution Petroleum Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Evolution Petroleum's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Evolution. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Evolution can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Evolution Petroleum. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Evolution Petroleum's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Evolution Petroleum.

Evolution Petroleum Implied Volatility

    
  47.1  
Evolution Petroleum's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Evolution Petroleum stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Evolution Petroleum's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Evolution Petroleum stock will not fluctuate a lot when Evolution Petroleum's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Evolution Petroleum. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Evolution Petroleum to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Evolution because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Evolution Petroleum after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 6.78  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evolution Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Evolution Petroleum in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.295.6810.07
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3.005.407.80
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.720.720.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Evolution Petroleum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Evolution Petroleum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Evolution Petroleum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Evolution Petroleum.

Evolution Petroleum After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Evolution Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evolution Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evolution Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Evolution Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Evolution Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evolution Petroleum's historical news coverage. Evolution Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.39 and 11.17, respectively. We have considered Evolution Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 6.73
6.78
After-hype Price
11.17
Upside
Evolution Petroleum is moderately volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evolution Petroleum is based on 3 months time horizon.

Evolution Petroleum Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Evolution Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evolution Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evolution Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.16  4.38   0.03   0.12  7 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.736.780.30 
2,738  

Evolution Petroleum Hype Timeline

On the 7th of December Evolution Petroleum is traded for 6.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Evolution is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 6.78 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price surge on the next news is estimated to be 0.3% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Evolution Petroleum is about 600.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 6.85. The company reported the last year's revenue of 108.93 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 32.63 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 60.27 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days.
Continue to Evolution Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Evolution Petroleum Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Evolution Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evolution Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Evolution Petroleum rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evolution Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Evolution Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Evolution price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evolution using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evolution charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Evolution Petroleum Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Evolution Petroleum stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Evolution Petroleum, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Evolution Petroleum based on analysis of Evolution Petroleum hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Evolution Petroleum's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Evolution Petroleum's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.280.22
Interest Coverage85.6287.87

Story Coverage note for Evolution Petroleum

The number of cover stories for Evolution Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Evolution Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evolution Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evolution Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Evolution Petroleum Short Properties

Evolution Petroleum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Evolution Petroleum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evolution Petroleum often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evolution Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolution Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33306000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments8280000.00
Continue to Evolution Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running Evolution Petroleum price analysis, check to measure Evolution Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evolution Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Evolution Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evolution Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evolution Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evolution Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Evolution Petroleum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evolution Petroleum. If investors know Evolution will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evolution Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.133
Market Capitalization
233.3 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
1.108
Return On Assets
0.269
Return On Equity
0.5451
The market value of Evolution Petroleum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evolution that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evolution Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evolution Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evolution Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evolution Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evolution Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Evolution Petroleum value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evolution Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.