New Oriental Stock Future Price Prediction

EDU
 Stock
  

USD 23.97  1.19  4.73%   

New Oriental Education stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of New Oriental shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of New Oriental's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of New Oriental and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from New Oriental's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with New Oriental Education, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to New Oriental Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of New Oriental based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The New Oriental stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on New Oriental over a specific investment horizon.Using New Oriental hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of New Oriental Education from the perspective of New Oriental response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards New Oriental using New Oriental's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards New Oriental using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of New Oriental's stock price.

New Oriental Implied Volatility

    
  97.26  
New Oriental's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of New Oriental Education stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if New Oriental's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that New Oriental stock will not fluctuate a lot when New Oriental's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in New Oriental. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in New Oriental to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying New Oriental because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

New Oriental after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 23.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current New Oriental contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that New Oriental Education will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.08% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With New Oriental trading at $23.97, that is roughly $1.46. If you think that the market is fully incorporating New Oriental's daily price movement you should consider acquiring New Oriental Education options at the current volatility level of 97.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Oriental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of New Oriental in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.3614.4126.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
20.1724.2328.28
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
2.404.369.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
22.1525.8629.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Oriental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Oriental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Oriental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in New Oriental Education.

New Oriental After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of New Oriental at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in New Oriental or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of New Oriental, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

New Oriental Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting New Oriental's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on New Oriental's historical news coverage. New Oriental's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.76 and 27.86, respectively. We have considered New Oriental's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 23.97
23.81
After-hype Price
27.86
Upside
New Oriental is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of New Oriental Education is based on 3 months time horizon.

New Oriental Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as New Oriental is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading New Oriental backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with New Oriental, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.18  4.05   0.16    0.02  5 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
23.9723.810.67 
455.06  

New Oriental Hype Timeline

On the 30th of September New Oriental Education is traded for 23.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. New Oriental is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 23.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.67% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on New Oriental is about 3115.38% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 23.95. About 55.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. New Oriental Education has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.85. The entity recorded a loss per share of 6.18. The firm last dividend was issued on the 1st of September 2017. New Oriental had 4:1 split on the 8th of April 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Continue to New Oriental Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

New Oriental Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to New Oriental's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict New Oriental's future price movements. Getting to know how New Oriental rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how New Oriental may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VRMVroom Inc(0.13) 6 per month 8.75  0.0437  16.32 (12.50)  64.25 

New Oriental Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine New Oriental price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for New Oriental using various technical indicators. When you analyze New Oriental charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About New Oriental Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of New Oriental stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as New Oriental Education, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of New Oriental based on analysis of New Oriental hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to New Oriental's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to New Oriental's related companies.

Story Coverage note for New Oriental

The number of cover stories for New Oriental depends on current market conditions and New Oriental's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that New Oriental is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about New Oriental's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

New Oriental Short Properties

New Oriental's future price predictability will typically decrease when New Oriental's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of New Oriental Education often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential New Oriental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Oriental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date1st of September 2017
Shares Percent Shares Out5.16%
Float Shares147.26M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.09M
Shares Short Prior Month9.8M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.54M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022
Continue to New Oriental Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the New Oriental Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other New Oriental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running New Oriental Education price analysis, check to measure New Oriental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Oriental is operating at the current time. Most of New Oriental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Oriental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Oriental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Oriental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is New Oriental's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of New Oriental. If investors know New Oriental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about New Oriental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of New Oriental Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of New Oriental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of New Oriental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is New Oriental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because New Oriental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect New Oriental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between New Oriental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine New Oriental value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New Oriental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.