Dollar Stock Future Price Prediction

DLTR
 Stock
  

USD 142.76  0.61  0.43%   

Dollar Tree stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Dollar Tree shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Dollar Tree's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Dollar Tree and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Dollar Tree's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dollar Tree, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Dollar Tree Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Dollar Tree based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Dollar stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Dollar Tree over a specific investment horizon.Using Dollar Tree hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dollar Tree from the perspective of Dollar Tree response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dollar Tree using Dollar Tree's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dollar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dollar Tree's stock price.

Dollar Tree Implied Volatility

    
  55.47  
Dollar Tree's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dollar Tree stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dollar Tree's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dollar Tree stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dollar Tree's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Dollar Tree. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Dollar Tree to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Dollar because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Dollar Tree after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 141.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Dollar contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Dollar Tree will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.47% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With Dollar Tree trading at $142.76, that is roughly $4.95. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Dollar Tree's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Dollar Tree options at the current volatility level of 55.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar Tree's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Dollar Tree in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
133.78136.06155.82
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
108.00144.62175.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dollar Tree. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dollar Tree's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dollar Tree's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Dollar Tree.

Dollar Tree After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dollar Tree at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dollar Tree or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dollar Tree, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dollar Tree Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dollar Tree's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dollar Tree's historical news coverage. Dollar Tree's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 139.55 and 144.11, respectively. We have considered Dollar Tree's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 142.76
139.55
Downside
141.83
After-hype Price
144.11
Upside
Dollar Tree is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dollar Tree is based on 3 months time horizon.

Dollar Tree Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Dollar Tree is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dollar Tree backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dollar Tree, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23  2.28  0.18   0.48  9 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
142.76141.830.13 
292.31  

Dollar Tree Hype Timeline

Dollar Tree is currently traded for 142.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.48. Dollar is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 141.83 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is forecasted to be 0.13% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Dollar Tree is about 108.57% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 143.24. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 26.74 B. Net Income was 1.49 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.75 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days.
Continue to Dollar Tree Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Dollar Tree Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dollar Tree's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dollar Tree's future price movements. Getting to know how Dollar Tree rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dollar Tree may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc 2.10 11 per month 2.46  0.06  4.00 (3.62)  17.42 

Dollar Tree Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dollar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dollar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dollar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Dollar Tree Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Dollar Tree stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Dollar Tree, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Dollar Tree based on analysis of Dollar Tree hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Dollar Tree's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Dollar Tree's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Dollar Tree

The number of cover stories for Dollar Tree depends on current market conditions and Dollar Tree's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dollar Tree is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dollar Tree's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Dollar Tree Short Properties

Dollar Tree's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dollar Tree's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dollar Tree often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dollar Tree's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar Tree's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.32%
Short Percent Of Float2.77%
Float Shares221.55M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.4M
Shares Short Prior Month4.59M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.48M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Continue to Dollar Tree Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Dollar Tree price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dollar Tree's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dollar Tree. If investors know Dollar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dollar Tree listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Dollar Tree is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dollar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dollar Tree's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dollar Tree's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dollar Tree's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dollar Tree's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dollar Tree's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Dollar Tree value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dollar Tree's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.