Delek Stock Future Price Prediction

DK
 Stock
  

USD 33.78  2.08  6.56%   

Delek US Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Delek US shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Delek US's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Delek US and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Delek US's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Delek US Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Delek US Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Delek US based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Delek stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Delek US over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.37) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.43
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.67
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.42
Wall Street Target Price
35.42
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.08
Using Delek US hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Delek US Holdings from the perspective of Delek US response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Delek US using Delek US's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Delek using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Delek US's stock price.
Delek US Receivables Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Receivables Turnover was reported at 16.33. The current Inventory Turnover is estimated to increase to 13.63, while Return on Investment is projected to decrease to (4.18) .

Delek US Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Delek US's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Delek. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Delek US stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Delek US may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Delek US and may potentially protect profits, hedge Delek US with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
26.29
Short Percent
0.0959
Short Ratio
4.3
Shares Short Prior Month
7.3 M
50 Day MA
30.02
Shares Short
5.9 M

Delek US Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Delek US's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Delek. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Delek can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Delek US Holdings. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Delek US's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Delek US.

Delek US Implied Volatility

    
  71.85  
Delek US's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Delek US Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Delek US's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Delek US stock will not fluctuate a lot when Delek US's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Delek US. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Delek US to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Delek because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Delek US after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 33.42  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Delek contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Delek US Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.49% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Delek US trading at $33.78, that is roughly $1.52. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Delek US's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Delek US Holdings options at the current volatility level of 71.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Delek US's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Delek US in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.4623.9237.16
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
27.6631.1234.57
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.0021.3633.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-3.84-3.3-3.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Delek US. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Delek US's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Delek US's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Delek US Holdings.

Delek US After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Delek US at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Delek US or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Delek US, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Delek US Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Delek US's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Delek US's historical news coverage. Delek US's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.96 and 36.88, respectively. We have considered Delek US's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 33.78
33.42
After-hype Price
36.88
Upside
Delek US is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Delek US Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Delek US Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Delek US is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Delek US backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Delek US, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.36  3.46   0.36   0.14  9 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
33.7833.421.07 
342.57  

Delek US Hype Timeline

As of November 30, 2022 Delek US Holdings is listed for 33.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.36 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Delek is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 33.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -1.07% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Delek US is about 887.18% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 33.92. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Delek US was currently reported as 13.64. The company recorded a loss per share of 8.26. Delek US Holdings last dividend was issued on the 19th of August 2022. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Continue to Delek US Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Delek US Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Delek US's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Delek US's future price movements. Getting to know how Delek US rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Delek US may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Delek US Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Delek price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Delek using various technical indicators. When you analyze Delek charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Delek US Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Delek US stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Delek US Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Delek US based on analysis of Delek US hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Delek US's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Delek US's related companies.
 2019 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.222.572.77
Interest Coverage4.114.735.36

Story Coverage note for Delek US

The number of cover stories for Delek US depends on current market conditions and Delek US's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Delek US is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Delek US's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Delek US Short Properties

Delek US's future price predictability will typically decrease when Delek US's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Delek US Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Delek US's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Delek US's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out10.21%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.93
Short Percent Of Float11.61%
Float Shares66.24M
Shares Short Prior Month6.13M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.16M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.35M
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.75%
Continue to Delek US Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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When running Delek US Holdings price analysis, check to measure Delek US's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Delek US is operating at the current time. Most of Delek US's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Delek US's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Delek US's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Delek US to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Delek US's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Delek US. If investors know Delek will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Delek US listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.37) 
Market Capitalization
2.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.8
Return On Assets
0.0416
Return On Equity
0.28
The market value of Delek US Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Delek that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Delek US's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Delek US's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Delek US's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Delek US's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Delek US's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Delek US value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Delek US's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.