Carvana Stock Future Price Prediction

CVNA -  USA Stock  

USD 135.65  22.34  14.14%

Carvana Co Cl stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Carvana Co shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Carvana Co's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Carvana Co and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Carvana Co's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Carvana Co Cl, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Carvana Co Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Carvana Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Carvana Co based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Carvana stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Carvana Co over a specific investment horizon. Using Carvana Co hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carvana Co Cl from the perspective of Carvana Co response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carvana Co using Carvana Co's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carvana using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carvana Co's stock price.
Carvana Co Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to increase based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 5.21. The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 10.41, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.30.

Carvana Co Implied Volatility

    
  130.53  
Carvana Co's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carvana Co Cl stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carvana Co's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carvana Co stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carvana Co's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Carvana Co. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Carvana Co to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Carvana because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Carvana Co after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 130.54  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carvana Co's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Carvana Co in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
122.09193.07197.26
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
111.46115.65119.83
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
260.00370.75470.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (12)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-2.07-1.42-1.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carvana Co. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carvana Co's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carvana Co's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Carvana Co Cl.

Carvana Co After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Carvana Co at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carvana Co or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Carvana Co, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Carvana Co Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Carvana Co's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carvana Co's historical news coverage. Carvana Co's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.35 and 149.22, respectively. We have considered Carvana Co's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
135.65
23rd of January 2022
126.35
Downside
130.54
After-hype Price
149.22
Upside
Carvana Co is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carvana Co Cl is based on 3 months time horizon.

Carvana Co Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Carvana Co is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carvana Co backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carvana Co, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 1.10  4.19  5.11   22.95  5 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
135.65130.543.77 
90.11  

Carvana Co Hype Timeline

Carvana Co Cl is currently traded for 135.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -5.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -22.95. Carvana is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 130.54. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is about 90.11%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -3.77% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.1%. The volatility of related hype on Carvana Co is about 20.08% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 112.7. About 118.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.74. Carvana Co Cl recorded a loss per share of 1.38. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimatedpress releasewill be in about 5 days.
Continue to Carvana Co Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Carvana Co Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Carvana Co's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carvana Co's future price movements. Getting to know how Carvana Co rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carvana Co may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Carvana Co Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Carvana price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carvana using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carvana charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Carvana Co Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Carvana Co stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Carvana Co Cl, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Carvana Co based on analysis of Carvana Co hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Carvana Co's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Carvana Co's related companies.
 2017 2018 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover8.218.7810.110.41
Long Term Debt to Equity0.395.795.215.63

Story Coverage note for Carvana Co

The number of cover stories for Carvana Co depends on current market conditions and Carvana Co's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carvana Co is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carvana Co's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on Carvana Co

Carvana Co Short Properties

Carvana Co's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carvana Co's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carvana Co Cl often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carvana Co's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carvana Co's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out11.73%
Short Percent Of Float13.28%
Float Shares78.45M
Shares Short Prior Month13.05M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.39M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.22M
Date Short Interest15th of December 2021
Continue to Carvana Co Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Carvana Co Cl information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carvana Co's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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When running Carvana Co Cl price analysis, check to measure Carvana Co's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carvana Co is operating at the current time. Most of Carvana Co's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carvana Co's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carvana Co's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carvana Co to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carvana Co's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carvana Co. If investors know Carvana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carvana Co listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Carvana Co Cl is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carvana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carvana Co's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carvana Co's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carvana Co's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carvana Co's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carvana Co's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Carvana Co value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carvana Co's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.