Capital Stock Future Price Prediction

COF
 Stock
  

USD 99.58  2.05  2.02%   

Capital One Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Capital One shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Capital One's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Capital One and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Capital One's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Capital One Financial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Capital One Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Capital One based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Capital stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Capital One over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.38) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
4.24
EPS Estimate Current Year
18.98
EPS Estimate Next Year
16.06
Wall Street Target Price
124.56
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
5.04
Using Capital One hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Capital One Financial from the perspective of Capital One response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Capital One using Capital One's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Capital using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Capital One's stock price.
Capital One Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cash and Equivalents Turnover was at 1.03. The current year Revenue to Assets is expected to grow to 0.09, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is forecasted to decline to 83.09.

Capital One Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Capital One's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Capital. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Capital One stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Capital One may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Capital One and may potentially protect profits, hedge Capital One with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
116.35
Short Percent
0.0146
Short Ratio
1.85
Shares Short Prior Month
7.1 M
50 Day MA
99.81
Shares Short
5.5 M

Capital One Financial Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Capital One's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Capital. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Capital can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Capital One Financial. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Capital One's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Capital One.

Capital One Implied Volatility

    
  71.87  
Capital One's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Capital One Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Capital One's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Capital One stock will not fluctuate a lot when Capital One's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Capital One. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Capital One to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Capital because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Capital One after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 99.54  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Capital contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Capital One Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.49% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Capital One trading at $99.58, that is roughly $4.47. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Capital One's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Capital One Financial options at the current volatility level of 71.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Capital One's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Capital One in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
89.62122.71125.79
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
95.4198.50101.58
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
145.00190.13221.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (15)
LowProjected EPSHigh
26.2026.7827.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Capital One. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Capital One's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Capital One's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Capital One Financial.

Capital One After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Capital One at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Capital One or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Capital One, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Capital One Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Capital One's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Capital One's historical news coverage. Capital One's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 96.46 and 102.62, respectively. We have considered Capital One's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 99.58
99.54
After-hype Price
102.62
Upside
Capital One is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Capital One Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Capital One Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Capital One is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Capital One backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Capital One, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04  3.11   0.09   0.01  1 Events / Month5 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
99.5899.540.04 
141.36  

Capital One Hype Timeline

On the 29th of November Capital One Financial is traded for 99.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Capital is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 99.54. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 141.36%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.04% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Capital One is about 1413.64% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 99.59. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Capital One Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 20.34. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2022. The firm had 3:1 split on the 2nd of June 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be very soon.
Continue to Capital One Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Capital One Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Capital One's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Capital One's future price movements. Getting to know how Capital One rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Capital One may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BACBank Of America(0.24) 2 per month 1.66  0.0329  4.15 (2.90)  8.88 
BKBank Of New(0.93) 3 per month 1.60  0.0213  4.68 (2.95)  7.49 
CCitigroup(1.13) 8 per month 0.00 (0.07)  3.66 (2.86)  9.08 
CFGCitizens Financial Group(0.74) 3 per month 1.71  0.0437  4.46 (3.01)  9.29 
CMAComerica(1.17) 10 per month 0.00 (0.10)  3.34 (3.61)  13.68 
FITBFifth Third Bancorp(0.61) 5 per month 2.11 (0.0068)  4.48 (3.54)  12.95 
FRCFIRST REPUBLIC BANK(1.51) 1 per month 0.00 (0.12)  5.45 (4.11)  22.16 
GSGoldman Sachs Group 8.09 4 per month 1.57  0.08  3.98 (2.43)  7.56 

Capital One Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Capital price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Capital using various technical indicators. When you analyze Capital charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Capital One Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Capital One stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Capital One Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Capital One based on analysis of Capital One hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Capital One's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Capital One's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover7.887.287.547.02
Calculated Tax Rate19.5115.1721.628.12

Story Coverage note for Capital One

The number of cover stories for Capital One depends on current market conditions and Capital One's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Capital One is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Capital One's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Capital One Short Properties

Capital One's future price predictability will typically decrease when Capital One's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Capital One Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Capital One's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Capital One's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date10th of November 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out1.76%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.40
Short Percent Of Float1.78%
Float Shares377.12M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.18M
Shares Short Prior Month7.02M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.69M
Date Short Interest31st of October 2022
Continue to Capital One Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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When running Capital One Financial price analysis, check to measure Capital One's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Capital One is operating at the current time. Most of Capital One's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Capital One's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Capital One's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Capital One to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Capital One's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Capital One. If investors know Capital will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Capital One listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.38) 
Market Capitalization
38.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.13) 
Return On Assets
0.0197
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of Capital One Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Capital that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Capital One's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Capital One's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Capital One's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Capital One's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Capital One's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Capital One value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Capital One's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.