Chipotle Stock Future Price Prediction

CMG
 Stock
  

USD 1,515  6.37  0.42%   

Chipotle Mexican Grill stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Chipotle Mexican shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Chipotle Mexican's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Chipotle Mexican's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Chipotle Mexican Grill, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Chipotle Mexican Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Chipotle Mexican based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Chipotle stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Chipotle Mexican over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.28
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
8.68
EPS Estimate Current Year
33.4
EPS Estimate Next Year
43.07
Wall Street Target Price
1.8 K
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
9.21
Using Chipotle Mexican hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chipotle Mexican Grill from the perspective of Chipotle Mexican response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Chipotle Mexican using Chipotle Mexican's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Chipotle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Chipotle Mexican's stock price.
Chipotle Mexican Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.003126. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 27.89, whereas Return on Investment is forecasted to decline to 36.59.

Chipotle Mexican Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Chipotle Mexican's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Chipotle. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Chipotle Mexican stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Chipotle Mexican may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Chipotle Mexican and may potentially protect profits, hedge Chipotle Mexican with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
1.5 K
Short Percent
0.0347
Short Ratio
2.52
Shares Short Prior Month
M
50 Day MA
1.5 K
Shares Short
955.6 K

Chipotle Mexican Grill Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Chipotle Mexican's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Chipotle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chipotle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chipotle Mexican Grill. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Chipotle Mexican's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Chipotle Mexican.

Chipotle Mexican Implied Volatility

    
  28.34  
Chipotle Mexican's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Chipotle Mexican Grill stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Chipotle Mexican's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Chipotle Mexican stock will not fluctuate a lot when Chipotle Mexican's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Chipotle Mexican. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Chipotle Mexican to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Chipotle because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Chipotle Mexican after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 1522.42  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Chipotle contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Chipotle Mexican Grill will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.77% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Chipotle Mexican trading at $1515.2, that is roughly $26.84. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Chipotle Mexican's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Chipotle Mexican Grill options at the current volatility level of 28.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chipotle Mexican's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chipotle Mexican in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1,3641,5211,523
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
1,6051,6071,609
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1,7251,9512,600
Details
Earnings
Estimates (13)
LowProjected EPSHigh
24.7225.0225.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chipotle Mexican. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chipotle Mexican's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chipotle Mexican's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Chipotle Mexican After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Chipotle Mexican at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chipotle Mexican or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chipotle Mexican, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Chipotle Mexican Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Chipotle Mexican's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chipotle Mexican's historical news coverage. Chipotle Mexican's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,364 and 1,524, respectively. We have considered Chipotle Mexican's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 1,515
1,522
After-hype Price
1,524
Upside
Chipotle Mexican is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chipotle Mexican Grill is based on 3 months time horizon.

Chipotle Mexican Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Chipotle Mexican is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chipotle Mexican backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chipotle Mexican, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08  2.03  5.78    0.15  7 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,5151,5220.48 
2.81  

Chipotle Mexican Hype Timeline

On the 28th of November Chipotle Mexican Grill is traded for 1,515. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 5.78 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Chipotle is expected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 1522.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 2.81%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.48% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Chipotle Mexican is about 110.03% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 1515.05. The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.41 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 808.85 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.9 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days.
Continue to Chipotle Mexican Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Chipotle Mexican Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Chipotle Mexican's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chipotle Mexican's future price movements. Getting to know how Chipotle Mexican rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chipotle Mexican may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Chipotle Mexican Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Chipotle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chipotle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chipotle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Chipotle Mexican Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Chipotle Mexican stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Chipotle Mexican Grill, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican based on analysis of Chipotle Mexican hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Chipotle Mexican's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Chipotle Mexican's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.0031260.003694
Interest Coverage105.16108.27

Story Coverage note for Chipotle Mexican

The number of cover stories for Chipotle Mexican depends on current market conditions and Chipotle Mexican's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chipotle Mexican is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chipotle Mexican's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Chipotle Mexican Short Properties

Chipotle Mexican's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chipotle Mexican's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chipotle Mexican Grill often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chipotle Mexican's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chipotle Mexican's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.75%
Short Percent Of Float3.78%
Float Shares27.54M
Shares Short Prior Month1.05M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day223.74k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month299.53k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Continue to Chipotle Mexican Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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When running Chipotle Mexican Grill price analysis, check to measure Chipotle Mexican's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chipotle Mexican is operating at the current time. Most of Chipotle Mexican's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chipotle Mexican's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chipotle Mexican's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chipotle Mexican to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chipotle Mexican's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chipotle Mexican. If investors know Chipotle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chipotle Mexican listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.28
Market Capitalization
42 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
0.0974
Return On Equity
0.35
The market value of Chipotle Mexican Grill is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chipotle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chipotle Mexican's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chipotle Mexican's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chipotle Mexican's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chipotle Mexican's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chipotle Mexican's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Chipotle Mexican value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chipotle Mexican's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.