Comerica Stock Future Price Prediction

CMA
 Stock
  

USD 65.95  0.59  0.90%   

Comerica stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Comerica shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Comerica's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Comerica and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Comerica's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Comerica, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Comerica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Comerica based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Comerica stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Comerica over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.368
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.71
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.47
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.06
Wall Street Target Price
84.08
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
2.57
Using Comerica hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Comerica from the perspective of Comerica response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Comerica using Comerica's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Comerica using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Comerica's stock price.
Comerica Calculated Tax Rate is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Calculated Tax Rate was at 21.61. The current year Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to grow to 0.16, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 5.88.

Comerica Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Comerica's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Comerica. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Comerica stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Comerica may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Comerica and may potentially protect profits, hedge Comerica with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
79.1566
Short Percent
0.0242
Short Ratio
1.33
Shares Short Prior Month
2.6 M
50 Day MA
70.5126
Shares Short
2.8 M

Comerica Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Comerica's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Comerica. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Comerica can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Comerica. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Comerica's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Comerica.

Comerica Implied Volatility

    
  66.21  
Comerica's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Comerica stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Comerica's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Comerica stock will not fluctuate a lot when Comerica's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Comerica. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Comerica to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Comerica because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Comerica after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 66.62  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Comerica contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Comerica will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.14% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Comerica trading at USD65.95, that is roughly USD2.73. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Comerica's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Comerica options at the current volatility level of 66.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comerica's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Comerica in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
58.6671.2373.72
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
59.0161.4963.98
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
73.0093.58110.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
8.168.288.39
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Comerica. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Comerica's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Comerica's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Comerica.

Comerica After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Comerica at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Comerica or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Comerica, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Comerica Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Comerica's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Comerica's historical news coverage. Comerica's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.13 and 69.11, respectively. We have considered Comerica's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 65.95
66.62
After-hype Price
69.11
Upside
Comerica is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Comerica is based on 3 months time horizon.

Comerica Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Comerica is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Comerica backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Comerica, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.36  2.49  0.89    0.16  7 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
65.9566.622.21 
100.40  

Comerica Hype Timeline

On the 9th of December Comerica is traded for 65.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.89 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.16. Comerica is expected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 66.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 100.4%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 2.21% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Comerica is about 556.87% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 65.79. The company has 2.8 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 8.51, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days.
Continue to Comerica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Comerica Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Comerica's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Comerica's future price movements. Getting to know how Comerica rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Comerica may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Comerica Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Comerica price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Comerica using various technical indicators. When you analyze Comerica charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Comerica Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Comerica stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Comerica, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Comerica based on analysis of Comerica hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Comerica's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Comerica's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover8.196.746.625.88
Calculated Tax Rate21.819.821.6126.31

Story Coverage note for Comerica

The number of cover stories for Comerica depends on current market conditions and Comerica's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Comerica is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Comerica's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Comerica Short Properties

Comerica's future price predictability will typically decrease when Comerica's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Comerica often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Comerica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comerica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding136566000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments39862000000.00
Continue to Comerica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Comerica price analysis, check to measure Comerica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Comerica is operating at the current time. Most of Comerica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Comerica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Comerica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Comerica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Comerica's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comerica. If investors know Comerica will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comerica listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.368
Market Capitalization
8.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.201
Return On Assets
0.0115
Return On Equity
16.5674
The market value of Comerica is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comerica that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comerica's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comerica's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comerica's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comerica's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comerica's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Comerica value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comerica's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.