Church Stock Future Price Prediction

CHD
 Stock
  

USD 88.09  0.70  0.80%   

Church Dwight stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Church Dwight shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Church Dwight's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Church Dwight and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Church Dwight's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Church Dwight, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Church Dwight Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Church Dwight based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Church stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Church Dwight over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.13
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.86
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.03
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.26
Wall Street Target Price
92.93
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.72
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.042
Using Church Dwight hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Church Dwight from the perspective of Church Dwight response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Church Dwight using Church Dwight's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Church using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Church Dwight's stock price.
Church Dwight Calculated Tax Rate is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Calculated Tax Rate was at 19.97. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 6.94, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 6.98.

Church Dwight Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Church Dwight's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Church. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Church Dwight stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Church Dwight may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Church Dwight and may potentially protect profits, hedge Church Dwight with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
95.44
Short Percent
0.0194
Short Ratio
2.62
Shares Short Prior Month
4.5 M
50 Day MA
90.4
Shares Short
4.2 M
Beta
0.34

Church Dwight Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Church Dwight's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Church. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Church can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Church Dwight. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Church Dwight's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Church Dwight.

Church Dwight Implied Volatility

    
  18.08  
Church Dwight's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Church Dwight stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Church Dwight's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Church Dwight stock will not fluctuate a lot when Church Dwight's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Church Dwight. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Church Dwight to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Church because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Church Dwight after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 88.09  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Church contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Church Dwight will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.13% per day over the life of the 2022-08-19 option contract. With Church Dwight trading at $88.09, that is roughly $1.0. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Church Dwight's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Church Dwight options at the current volatility level of 18.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Church Dwight's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Church Dwight in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
79.2892.3294.19
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
85.7887.6689.53
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
80.0095.56116.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (9)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.962.972.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Church Dwight. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Church Dwight's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Church Dwight's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Church Dwight.

Church Dwight After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Church Dwight at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Church Dwight or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Church Dwight, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Church Dwight Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Church Dwight's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Church Dwight's historical news coverage. Church Dwight's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.22 and 89.96, respectively. We have considered Church Dwight's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 88.09
88.09
After-hype Price
89.96
Upside
Church Dwight is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Church Dwight is based on 3 months time horizon.

Church Dwight Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Church Dwight is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Church Dwight backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Church Dwight, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14  1.87  0.00   0.04  9 Events / Month9 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
88.0988.090.00 
9,350  

Church Dwight Hype Timeline

On the 10th of August Church Dwight is traded for 88.09. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Church forecasted not to react to the next headlinewith price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.14%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Church Dwight is about 682.48%. The volatility of related hype on Church Dwight is about 682.48% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 88.13. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company last dividend was issued on the 12th of August 2022. Church Dwight had 2:1 split on the 2nd of September 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 9 days.
Continue to Church Dwight Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Church Dwight Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Church Dwight's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Church Dwight's future price movements. Getting to know how Church Dwight rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Church Dwight may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ASAISendas Distribuidora SA(0.24) 3 per month 2.19  0.1  5.01 (3.45)  13.41 
CLXClorox Company 2.01 5 per month 0.00 (0.0361)  3.03 (3.29)  10.75 
AAPLApple Inc 2.70 10 per month 2.36  0.0488  3.42 (3.86)  8.84 
ALVRAllovir 0.04 4 per month 5.79  0.14  13.96 (8.23)  30.02 
PFEPfizer Inc 0.24 9 per month 1.63  0.0236  2.93 (2.35)  7.74 
MCDMcDonalds Corp 1.20 10 per month 1.11  0.0413  2.22 (1.55)  4.73 
BABoeing Company(0.63) 8 per month 3.09  0.06  6.45 (5.03)  16.31 
GEGeneral Electric(1.82) 8 per month 2.45 (0.0094)  3.33 (4.74)  8.85 
AAAlcoa Corp(0.89) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0408)  5.50 (5.97)  17.64 
VZVerizon Communications 0.13 9 per month 0.00 (0.08)  1.79 (2.43)  10.04 

Church Dwight Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Church price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Church using various technical indicators. When you analyze Church charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Church Dwight Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Church Dwight stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Church Dwight, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Church Dwight based on analysis of Church Dwight hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Church Dwight's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Church Dwight's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.680.60.50.44
Interest Coverage11.4216.8819.823.82

Story Coverage note for Church Dwight

The number of cover stories for Church Dwight depends on current market conditions and Church Dwight's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Church Dwight is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Church Dwight's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Church Dwight Short Properties

Church Dwight's future price predictability will typically decrease when Church Dwight's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Church Dwight often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Church Dwight's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Church Dwight's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.71%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.00
Short Percent Of Float1.94%
Float Shares242.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.6M
Shares Short Prior Month4.5M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.47M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.14%
Continue to Church Dwight Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Church Dwight information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Church Dwight's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

Complementary Tools for Church Stock analysis

When running Church Dwight price analysis, check to measure Church Dwight's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Church Dwight is operating at the current time. Most of Church Dwight's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Church Dwight's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Church Dwight's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Church Dwight to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Go
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Go
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
Is Church Dwight's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Church Dwight. If investors know Church will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Church Dwight listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.13
Market Capitalization
21.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.042
Return On Assets
0.0774
Return On Equity
0.23
The market value of Church Dwight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Church that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Church Dwight's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Church Dwight's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Church Dwight's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Church Dwight's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Church Dwight's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Church Dwight value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Church Dwight's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.