Cognyte Stock Future Price Prediction

CGNT
 Stock
  

USD 3.13  0.06  1.88%   

Cognyte Software stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Cognyte Software shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Cognyte Software's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cognyte Software and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cognyte Software's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cognyte Software, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Cognyte Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Cognyte Software based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Cognyte stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Cognyte Software over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.75) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.8
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.87
Wall Street Target Price
6.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.17) 
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.30) 
Using Cognyte Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cognyte Software from the perspective of Cognyte Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cognyte Software using Cognyte Software's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cognyte using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cognyte Software's stock price.

Cognyte Software Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Cognyte Software's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Cognyte. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Cognyte Software stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Cognyte Software may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cognyte Software and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cognyte Software with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
6.21
Short Percent
0.011
Short Ratio
0.44
Shares Short Prior Month
1.5 M
50 Day MA
3.42
Shares Short
790.5 K

Cognyte Software Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Cognyte Software's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Cognyte. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cognyte can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cognyte Software. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cognyte Software's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cognyte Software.

Cognyte Software Implied Volatility

    
  11.6  
Cognyte Software's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cognyte Software stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cognyte Software's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cognyte Software stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cognyte Software's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Cognyte Software. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cognyte Software to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cognyte because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Cognyte Software after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 3.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cognyte Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cognyte Software in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.867.7412.62
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.052.737.61
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
17.0021.7526.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.010.030.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cognyte Software. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cognyte Software's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cognyte Software's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cognyte Software.

Cognyte Software After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Cognyte Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cognyte Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cognyte Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Cognyte Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Cognyte Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cognyte Software's historical news coverage. Cognyte Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 7.88, respectively. We have considered Cognyte Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 3.13
3.00
After-hype Price
7.88
Upside
Cognyte Software is slightly risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cognyte Software is based on 3 months time horizon.

Cognyte Software Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Cognyte Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cognyte Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cognyte Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.57  4.88   0.13    78.01  4 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.133.004.15 
2,218  

Cognyte Software Hype Timeline

Cognyte Software is currently traded for 3.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -78.01. Cognyte is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 3.0. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -4.15% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Cognyte Software is about 3.57% with expected price after next announcement by competition of -74.88. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.71. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cognyte Software has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 109.64. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of August 2010. The firm had 1:5 split on the 1st of April 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days.
Continue to Cognyte Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Cognyte Software Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Cognyte Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cognyte Software's future price movements. Getting to know how Cognyte Software rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cognyte Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AAPLApple Inc 1.95 8 per month 0.00 (0.09)  3.36 (3.77)  11.79 
2881FUBON FINANCIAL HLDG 0.00 0 per month 1.34  0.0012  2.33 (2.00)  6.71 
BMYMPBristol Myer Squi 0.00 3 per month 3.22  0.0301  10.00 (4.37)  41.47 
BRK-ABerkshire Hathaway(1,368) 6 per month 1.30  0.0376  3.19 (2.47)  6.26 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp 2.01 8 per month 1.82  0.08  3.65 (2.91)  9.75 
AMZNAmazon Inc(0.50) 10 per month 0.00 (0.18)  4.31 (5.00)  14.52 
GOOGAlphabet Cl C(3.45) 3 per month 0.00 (0.11)  3.70 (4.39)  13.34 
UNHUnitedhealth Group(2.17) 8 per month 1.63 (0.0363)  2.07 (2.42)  6.64 
MSFTMicrosoft Corp 1.04 8 per month 0.00 (0.08)  3.76 (3.86)  11.64 
CNQCanadian Natural Resources 0.59 7 per month 2.29  0.0266  4.02 (3.19)  11.52 

Cognyte Software Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Cognyte price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cognyte using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cognyte charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Cognyte Software Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Cognyte Software stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cognyte Software, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cognyte Software based on analysis of Cognyte Software hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cognyte Software's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cognyte Software's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Cognyte Software

The number of cover stories for Cognyte Software depends on current market conditions and Cognyte Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cognyte Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cognyte Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Cognyte Software Short Properties

Cognyte Software's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cognyte Software's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cognyte Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cognyte Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cognyte Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.14%
Short Percent Of Float2.18%
Float Shares55.75M
Shares Short Prior Month1.41M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.13M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.12M
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Continue to Cognyte Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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When running Cognyte Software price analysis, check to measure Cognyte Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cognyte Software is operating at the current time. Most of Cognyte Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cognyte Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cognyte Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cognyte Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cognyte Software's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cognyte Software. If investors know Cognyte will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cognyte Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.75) 
Market Capitalization
212.4 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.30) 
Return On Assets
(0.06) 
Return On Equity
(0.24) 
The market value of Cognyte Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cognyte that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cognyte Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cognyte Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cognyte Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cognyte Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cognyte Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cognyte Software value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cognyte Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.