Carnival Stock Future Price Prediction

CCL -  USA Stock  

USD 13.13  0.45  3.31%

Carnival Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Carnival Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Carnival Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Carnival Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Carnival Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Carnival Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Carnival Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Carnival Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Carnival stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Carnival Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using Carnival Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carnival Corp from the perspective of Carnival Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carnival Corp using Carnival Corp's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carnival using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carnival Corp's stock price.
Carnival Corp Dividend Yield is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Dividend Yield is estimated at 0.0322. Dividends per Basic Common Share is expected to hike to 0.59 this year, although the value of Earnings per Basic Share will most likely fall to (7.81) .

Carnival Corp Implied Volatility

    
  89.74  
Carnival Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carnival Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carnival Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carnival Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carnival Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Carnival Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Carnival Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Carnival because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Carnival Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 13.62  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carnival Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Carnival Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.2916.3520.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
8.6712.7316.78
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.0026.8042.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.22-0.620.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carnival Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carnival Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carnival Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Carnival Corp.

Carnival Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Carnival Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carnival Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Carnival Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Carnival Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Carnival Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carnival Corp's historical news coverage. Carnival Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.56 and 17.68, respectively. We have considered Carnival Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 13.13
13.62
After-hype Price
17.68
Upside
Carnival Corp is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carnival Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Carnival Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Carnival Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carnival Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carnival Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
  0.69  4.06  0.49    0.03  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.1313.623.73 
571.83  

Carnival Corp Hype Timeline

On the 23rd of May Carnival Corp is traded for 13.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.49 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Carnival is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 13.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price surge on the next news is projected to be 3.73% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.69%. The volatility of related hype on Carnival Corp is about 9666.67% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 13.1. The company has 36.23 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 3.51, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 8 days.
Continue to Carnival Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Carnival Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Carnival Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carnival Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Carnival Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carnival Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Carnival Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Carnival price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carnival using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carnival charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Carnival Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Carnival Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Carnival Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Carnival Corp based on analysis of Carnival Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Carnival Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Carnival Corp's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Book Value per Share22.7610.429.389.63
Asset Turnover0.110.0350.03150.0323

Story Coverage note for Carnival Corp

The number of cover stories for Carnival Corp depends on current market conditions and Carnival Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carnival Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carnival Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Carnival Corp Short Properties

Carnival Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carnival Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carnival Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carnival Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carnival Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out8.19%
Short Percent Of Float12.92%
Float Shares1.04B
Shares Short Prior Month86.65M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day41.67M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month38.28M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Continue to Carnival Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Carnival Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carnival Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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When running Carnival Corp price analysis, check to measure Carnival Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carnival Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Carnival Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carnival Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carnival Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carnival Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carnival Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carnival Corp. If investors know Carnival will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carnival Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Carnival Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carnival that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carnival Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carnival Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carnival Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carnival Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carnival Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Carnival Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carnival Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.