Commerce Stock Future Price Prediction

CBSH
 Stock
  

USD 69.18  1.26  1.79%   

Commerce Bancshares stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Commerce Bancshares shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Commerce Bancshares' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Commerce Bancshares and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Commerce Bancshares' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Commerce Bancshares, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Commerce Bancshares based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Commerce stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Commerce Bancshares over a specific investment horizon.Using Commerce Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commerce Bancshares from the perspective of Commerce Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Commerce Bancshares using Commerce Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Commerce using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Commerce Bancshares' stock price.

Commerce Bancshares Implied Volatility

    
  11.3  
Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Commerce Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Commerce Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when Commerce Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Commerce Bancshares. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Commerce Bancshares to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Commerce because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Commerce Bancshares after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 70.43  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Commerce contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Commerce Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.71% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Commerce Bancshares trading at $69.18, that is roughly $0.49. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Commerce Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Commerce Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 11.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Commerce Bancshares in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
63.4075.9677.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
69.1970.4871.77
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
57.1469.5675.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
66.3170.2274.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Commerce Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Commerce Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Commerce Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Commerce Bancshares.

Commerce Bancshares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Commerce Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commerce Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commerce Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Commerce Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Commerce Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commerce Bancshares' historical news coverage. Commerce Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 69.14 and 71.72, respectively. We have considered Commerce Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 69.18
70.43
After-hype Price
71.72
Upside
Commerce Bancshares is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commerce Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.

Commerce Bancshares Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Commerce Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commerce Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commerce Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.09  1.29   0.01   0.19  9 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
69.1870.430.01 
860.00  

Commerce Bancshares Hype Timeline

Commerce Bancshares is currently traded for 69.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Commerce is projected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 70.43. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.01% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Commerce Bancshares is about 61.43% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 69.37. About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Commerce Bancshares was currently reported as 28.29. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of June 2022. Commerce Bancshares had 21-20 split on the 1st of December 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Continue to Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Commerce Bancshares Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Commerce Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Commerce Bancshares rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commerce Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc 2.10 11 per month 2.43  0.06  4.00 (3.62)  17.42 

Commerce Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Commerce price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commerce using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commerce charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Commerce Bancshares Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Commerce Bancshares stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Commerce Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Commerce Bancshares based on analysis of Commerce Bancshares hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Commerce Bancshares's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Commerce Bancshares's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Commerce Bancshares

The number of cover stories for Commerce Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Commerce Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commerce Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commerce Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Commerce Bancshares Short Properties

Commerce Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when Commerce Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Commerce Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Commerce Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commerce Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.88%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.03
Short Percent Of Float3.19%
Float Shares108.37M
Shares Short Prior Month3.75M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day358.36k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month383.6k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.55%
Continue to Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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Is Commerce Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Commerce Bancshares value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.