China Stock Future Price Prediction

CAAS
 Stock
  

USD 6.30  0.32  5.35%   

China Automotive Sys stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of China Automotive shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of China Automotive's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of China Automotive and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from China Automotive's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with China Automotive Sys, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to China Automotive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of China Automotive based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The China stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on China Automotive over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.06
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.06
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.4
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.3
Wall Street Target Price
7.0
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.04
Using China Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Automotive Sys from the perspective of China Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards China Automotive using China Automotive's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards China using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of China Automotive's stock price.
China Automotive Return on Investment is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. China Automotive reported last year Return on Investment of 1.54. As of 11/26/2022, Revenue to Assets is likely to grow to 0.78, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 1.93.

China Automotive Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in China Automotive's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards China. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of China Automotive stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long China Automotive may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about China Automotive and may potentially protect profits, hedge China Automotive with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
3.3
Short Percent
0.0086
Short Ratio
1.51
Shares Short Prior Month
54.9 K
50 Day MA
4.23
Shares Short
94.6 K

China Automotive Sys Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to China Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in China. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding China can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around China Automotive Sys. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of China Automotive's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about China Automotive.

China Automotive Implied Volatility

    
  77.2  
China Automotive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of China Automotive Sys stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if China Automotive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that China Automotive stock will not fluctuate a lot when China Automotive's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in China Automotive. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in China Automotive to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying China because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

China Automotive after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 6.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of China Automotive in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.795.8910.99
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
2.117.2112.30
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.007.007.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.260.260.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in China Automotive Sys.

China Automotive After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of China Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of China Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

China Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting China Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Automotive's historical news coverage. China Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.27 and 11.47, respectively. We have considered China Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 6.30
6.37
After-hype Price
11.47
Upside
China Automotive is relatively risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Automotive Sys is based on 3 months time horizon.

China Automotive Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as China Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.83  5.10  0.07   0.65  6 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.306.371.11 
6,375  

China Automotive Hype Timeline

China Automotive Sys is currently traded for 6.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.65. China is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 6.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is forecasted to be 1.11% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.83%. The volatility of related hype on China Automotive is about 646.59% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 6.95. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 510.6 M. Net Income was 14.01 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 71.13 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Continue to China Automotive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

China Automotive Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to China Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how China Automotive rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CPYYYCentrica Plc ADR(0.04) 1 per month 2.55  0.06  5.94 (4.02)  14.03 
FSLRFirst Solar(5.54) 6 per month 2.19  0.19  4.71 (4.12)  13.93 
JBLJabil Circuit(1.28) 5 per month 1.64  0.07  3.70 (3.15)  8.34 
AAPAdvance Auto Parts(1.20) 8 per month 0.00 (0.11)  3.08 (4.09)  19.72 
DDSDillards(1.75) 6 per month 2.54  0.09  4.82 (5.26)  18.29 
ORLYOReilly Automotive(13.09) 7 per month 1.25  0.15  2.84 (2.26)  7.95 
NFLXNetflix(11.02) 10 per month 2.93  0.09  7.98 (4.80)  17.88 
AZOAutozone 40.23 9 per month 1.29  0.09  3.11 (2.38)  7.01 

China Automotive Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About China Automotive Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of China Automotive stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as China Automotive Sys, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of China Automotive based on analysis of China Automotive hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to China Automotive's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to China Automotive's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.02850.0341
Interest Coverage32.5433.39

Story Coverage note for China Automotive

The number of cover stories for China Automotive depends on current market conditions and China Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

China Automotive Short Properties

China Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when China Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Automotive Sys often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.18%
Short Percent Of Float0.50%
Float Shares10.98M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day204.42k
Shares Short Prior Month57.48k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month147.01k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Continue to China Automotive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the China Automotive Sys information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Automotive's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for China Stock analysis

When running China Automotive Sys price analysis, check to measure China Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of China Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is China Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Automotive. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.06
Market Capitalization
180.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.27
Return On Assets
0.0106
Return On Equity
0.0712
The market value of China Automotive Sys is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine China Automotive value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.