Acuity Stock Future Price Prediction

AYI
 Stock
  

USD 157.47  3.28  2.13%   

Acuity Brands stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Acuity Brands shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Acuity Brands' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Acuity Brands and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Acuity Brands' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Acuity Brands, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Acuity Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Acuity Brands based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Acuity stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Acuity Brands over a specific investment horizon.Using Acuity Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Acuity Brands from the perspective of Acuity Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Acuity Brands using Acuity Brands' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Acuity using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Acuity Brands' stock price.

Acuity Brands Implied Volatility

    
  17.79  
Acuity Brands' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Acuity Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Acuity Brands' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Acuity Brands stock will not fluctuate a lot when Acuity Brands' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Acuity Brands. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Acuity Brands to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Acuity because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Acuity Brands after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 157.1  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Acuity contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Acuity Brands will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.11% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Acuity Brands trading at $157.47, that is roughly $1.75. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Acuity Brands' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Acuity Brands options at the current volatility level of 17.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Acuity Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Acuity Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
141.72190.61192.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
154.72156.80158.88
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
165.00217.50245.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
154.09156.77159.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Acuity Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Acuity Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Acuity Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Acuity Brands.

Acuity Brands After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Acuity Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Acuity Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Acuity Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Acuity Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Acuity Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Acuity Brands' historical news coverage. Acuity Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 155.02 and 159.18, respectively. We have considered Acuity Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 157.47
155.02
Downside
157.10
After-hype Price
159.18
Upside
Acuity Brands is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Acuity Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.

Acuity Brands Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Acuity Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Acuity Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Acuity Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.04  2.08   0.10    0.11  7 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
157.47157.100.23 
86.67  

Acuity Brands Hype Timeline

On the 2nd of October Acuity Brands is traded for 157.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Acuity is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 157.1. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 86.67%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.23% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Acuity Brands is about 77.61% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 157.36. About 104.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Acuity Brands was presently reported as 54.68. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. Acuity Brands recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.69. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of July 2022. The firm had 1:1 split on the 2nd of May 2008. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days.
Please continue to Acuity Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Acuity Brands Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Acuity Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Acuity Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Acuity Brands rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Acuity Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

Acuity Brands Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Acuity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Acuity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Acuity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Acuity Brands Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Acuity Brands stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Acuity Brands, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Acuity Brands based on analysis of Acuity Brands hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Acuity Brands's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Acuity Brands's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Acuity Brands

The number of cover stories for Acuity Brands depends on current market conditions and Acuity Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Acuity Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Acuity Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Acuity Brands Short Properties

Acuity Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Acuity Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Acuity Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Acuity Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acuity Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.46%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.52
Short Percent Of Float5.72%
Float Shares32.13M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day416.09k
Shares Short Prior Month1.14M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month269.01k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.34%
Please continue to Acuity Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Acuity Brands price analysis, check to measure Acuity Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Acuity Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Acuity Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Acuity Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Acuity Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Acuity Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Acuity Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Acuity Brands. If investors know Acuity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Acuity Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Acuity Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Acuity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Acuity Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Acuity Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Acuity Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Acuity Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Acuity Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Acuity Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Acuity Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.