Axcella Stock Future Price Prediction

AXLA
 Stock
  

USD 2.65  0.32  13.73%   

Axcella Health stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Axcella Health shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Axcella Health's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Axcella Health and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Axcella Health's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Axcella Health, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Axcella Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Axcella Health based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Axcella stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Axcella Health over a specific investment horizon.
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
-0.38
EPS Estimate Current Year
-1.56
EPS Estimate Next Year
-1.52
Wall Street Target Price
9.67
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
-0.39
Using Axcella Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Axcella Health from the perspective of Axcella Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Axcella Health using Axcella Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Axcella using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Axcella Health's stock price.
Axcella Health Book Value per Share is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Book Value per Share was at 0.58. The current year Current Ratio is expected to grow to 7.28, whereas Earnings per Basic Share are forecasted to decline to (1.83) .

Axcella Health Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Axcella Health's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Axcella. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Axcella Health stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Axcella Health may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Axcella Health and may potentially protect profits, hedge Axcella Health with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
2.19
Short Percent
0.0049
Short Ratio
4.02
Shares Short Prior Month
81.3 K
50 Day MA
2.13
Shares Short
89.6 K
Beta
1.29

Axcella Health Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Axcella Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Axcella. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Axcella can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Axcella Health. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Axcella Health's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Axcella Health.

Axcella Health Implied Volatility

    
  468.42  
Axcella Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Axcella Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Axcella Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Axcella Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Axcella Health's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Axcella Health. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Axcella Health to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Axcella because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Axcella Health after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 2.67  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axcella Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Axcella Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.295.7712.78
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.052.669.67
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0015.7128.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.8-1.69-1.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Axcella Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Axcella Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Axcella Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Axcella Health.

Axcella Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Axcella Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Axcella Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Axcella Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Axcella Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Axcella Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Axcella Health's historical news coverage. Axcella Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.13 and 9.68, respectively. We have considered Axcella Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 2.65
2.67
After-hype Price
9.68
Upside
Axcella Health is unstable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Axcella Health is based on 3 months time horizon.

Axcella Health Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Axcella Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Axcella Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Axcella Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 1.13  7.19  0.02   0.79  4 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.652.670.75 
35,950  

Axcella Health Hype Timeline

Axcella Health is presently traded for 2.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.79. Axcella is expected to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 2.67 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.75% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.13%. The volatility of related hype on Axcella Health is about 1032.06% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 3.44. Net Loss for the year was (68.48 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expectedpress releasewill be in about 4 days.
Please continue to Axcella Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Axcella Health Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Axcella Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Axcella Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Axcella Health rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Axcella Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AAAlcoa Corp(0.20) 8 per month 0.00 (0.0262)  5.50 (5.50)  17.64 
VZVerizon Communications(0.64) 10 per month 0.00 (0.11)  1.79 (2.43)  10.04 
GEGeneral Electric 0.01 8 per month 1.99  0.0349  3.33 (3.32)  8.85 
CVXChevron Corp 2.02 9 per month 2.34 (0.0222)  3.06 (4.35)  11.62 
TATT Inc(0.69) 8 per month 0.00 (0.14)  1.69 (1.63)  7.50 
HDHome Depot 3.85 8 per month 0.00 (0.09)  2.29 (2.48)  7.12 
CSCOCisco Systems 0.54 10 per month 0.00 (0.06)  2.73 (1.76)  17.00 
MCDMcDonalds Corp 0.24 9 per month 1.09  0.0265  2.22 (1.55)  4.73 
KOCoca-Cola 1.14 4 per month 1.66 (0.0472)  1.87 (1.96)  8.84 

Axcella Health Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Axcella price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Axcella using various technical indicators. When you analyze Axcella charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Axcella Health Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Axcella Health stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Axcella Health, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Axcella Health based on analysis of Axcella Health hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Axcella Health's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Axcella Health's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Axcella Health

The number of cover stories for Axcella Health depends on current market conditions and Axcella Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Axcella Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Axcella Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Axcella Health Short Properties

Axcella Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Axcella Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Axcella Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Axcella Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axcella Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.15%
Short Percent Of Float0.45%
Float Shares21.47M
Shares Short Prior Month102.64k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day167.12k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month65.95k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Please continue to Axcella Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Axcella Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Axcella Health's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

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When running Axcella Health price analysis, check to measure Axcella Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Axcella Health is operating at the current time. Most of Axcella Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Axcella Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Axcella Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Axcella Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Axcella Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axcella Health. If investors know Axcella will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axcella Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
123 M
Return On Assets
-0.5
Return On Equity
-1.5
The market value of Axcella Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axcella that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axcella Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axcella Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axcella Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axcella Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axcella Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Axcella Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axcella Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.