Avnet Stock Future Price Prediction

AVT
 Stock
  

USD 36.29  0.72  1.95%   

Avnet Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Avnet shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Avnet's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Avnet and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Avnet's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Avnet Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Avnet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Avnet based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Avnet stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Avnet over a specific investment horizon.Using Avnet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avnet Inc from the perspective of Avnet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Avnet using Avnet's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Avnet using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Avnet's stock price.

Avnet Implied Volatility

    
  32.57  
Avnet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Avnet Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Avnet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Avnet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Avnet's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Avnet. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Avnet to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Avnet because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Avnet after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 37.1  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Avnet contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Avnet Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.04% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Avnet trading at $36.29, that is roughly $0.74. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Avnet's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Avnet Inc options at the current volatility level of 32.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avnet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Avnet in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.9736.9238.87
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
43.0047.2053.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Avnet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Avnet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Avnet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Avnet Inc.

Avnet After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Avnet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avnet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avnet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Avnet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Avnet's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avnet's historical news coverage. Avnet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.15 and 39.05, respectively. We have considered Avnet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 36.29
37.10
After-hype Price
39.05
Upside
Avnet is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avnet Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Avnet Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Avnet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avnet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avnet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.26  1.94  0.09   0.00  7 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
36.2937.100.24 
570.59  

Avnet Hype Timeline

On the 25th of September Avnet Inc is traded for 36.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Avnet is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 37.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.24% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Avnet is about 19400.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 36.29. The company reported the last year's revenue of 24.31 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 692.38 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.97 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days.
Please continue to Avnet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Avnet Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Avnet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avnet's future price movements. Getting to know how Avnet rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avnet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BSHVFBUSHVELD MINERALS LTD(0.01) 3 per month 16.82  0.14  85.71 (46.15)  273.33 

Avnet Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Avnet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avnet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avnet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Avnet Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Avnet stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Avnet Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Avnet based on analysis of Avnet hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Avnet's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Avnet's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Avnet

The number of cover stories for Avnet depends on current market conditions and Avnet's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avnet is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avnet's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Avnet Short Properties

Avnet's future price predictability will typically decrease when Avnet's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avnet Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avnet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avnet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date13th of September 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out4.65%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.00
Short Percent Of Float6.23%
Float Shares94.09M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.13M
Shares Short Prior Month4.27M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month903.36k
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022
Please continue to Avnet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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When running Avnet Inc price analysis, check to measure Avnet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avnet is operating at the current time. Most of Avnet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avnet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avnet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avnet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Avnet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avnet. If investors know Avnet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avnet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Avnet Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avnet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avnet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avnet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avnet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avnet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avnet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Avnet value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avnet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.