Armour Stock Future Price Prediction

ARR
 Stock
  

USD 7.59  0.04  0.52%   

Armour Residential stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Armour Residential shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Armour Residential's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Armour Residential and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Armour Residential's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Armour Residential R, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Armour Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Armour Residential based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Armour stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Armour Residential over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.58
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.27
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.08
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.07
Wall Street Target Price
7.17
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.26
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.34
Using Armour Residential hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Armour Residential R from the perspective of Armour Residential response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Armour Residential using Armour Residential's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Armour using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Armour Residential's stock price.
Armour Residential Quick Ratio is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Armour Residential reported last year Quick Ratio of 0.05. As of 08/14/2022, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.0108, while Calculated Tax Rate is likely to drop (0.0105) .

Armour Residential Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Armour Residential's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Armour. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Armour Residential stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Armour Residential may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Armour Residential and may potentially protect profits, hedge Armour Residential with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
8.5
Short Percent
0.11
Short Ratio
3.93
Shares Short Prior Month
11.8 M
50 Day MA
7.15
Shares Short
11.2 M
Beta
0.99

Armour Residential Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Armour Residential's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Armour. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Armour can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Armour Residential R. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Armour Residential's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Armour Residential.

Armour Residential Implied Volatility

    
  52.5  
Armour Residential's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Armour Residential R stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Armour Residential's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Armour Residential stock will not fluctuate a lot when Armour Residential's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Armour Residential. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Armour Residential to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Armour because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Armour Residential after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 7.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Armour Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Armour Residential in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.948.5011.06
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.0011.0011.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.960.960.96
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Armour Residential. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Armour Residential's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Armour Residential's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Armour Residential.

Armour Residential After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Armour Residential at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Armour Residential or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Armour Residential, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Armour Residential Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Armour Residential's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Armour Residential's historical news coverage. Armour Residential's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.00 and 10.12, respectively. We have considered Armour Residential's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 7.59
7.56
After-hype Price
10.12
Upside
Armour Residential is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Armour Residential is based on 3 months time horizon.

Armour Residential Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Armour Residential is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Armour Residential backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Armour Residential, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.10  2.54   0.03   0.03  3 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
7.597.560.40 
793.75  

Armour Residential Hype Timeline

On the 14th of August 2022 Armour Residential is traded for 7.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Armour is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 7.56. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.4% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Armour Residential is about 933.06% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 7.62. About 47.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.58. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Armour Residential last dividend was issued on the 12th of August 2022. The entity had 1:8 split on the 3rd of August 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projectedpress releasewill be in about 3 days.
Please continue to Armour Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Armour Residential Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Armour Residential's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Armour Residential's future price movements. Getting to know how Armour Residential rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Armour Residential may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GOOGLAlphabet Cl A(2.32) 10 per month 2.22  0.0173  4.20 (3.92)  10.75 
AAgilent Technologies 1.55 8 per month 1.89  0.07  4.22 (3.15)  8.98 
VLDRVelodyne Lidar(0.05) 8 per month 6.28  0.06  11.64 (9.52)  34.49 
IRBTIrobot Corp(0.03) 5 per month 3.40  0.08  6.53 (5.22)  19.17 
NCMINational Cinemedia(0.07) 6 per month 6.00  0.0454  9.73 (8.26)  38.74 
MMM3M Company 1.33 9 per month 1.38 (0.0161)  2.50 (2.13)  6.70 
PFEPfizer Inc(0.52) 10 per month 1.73 (0.0143)  3.00 (3.17)  7.74 
CATCaterpillar(2.36) 8 per month 0.00 (0.0382)  3.82 (4.35)  11.37 
CVXChevron Corp 4.92 7 per month 2.34 (0.0222)  3.06 (4.35)  11.62 

Armour Residential Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Armour price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Armour using various technical indicators. When you analyze Armour charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Armour Residential Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Armour Residential stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Armour Residential R, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Armour Residential based on analysis of Armour Residential hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Armour Residential's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Armour Residential's related companies.
 2017 2018 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable Turnover60.8725.9929.8834.42
Receivables Turnover4.280.670.60.62

Story Coverage note for Armour Residential

The number of cover stories for Armour Residential depends on current market conditions and Armour Residential's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Armour Residential is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Armour Residential's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Armour Residential Short Properties

Armour Residential's future price predictability will typically decrease when Armour Residential's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Armour Residential R often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Armour Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Armour Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out12.17%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.20
Short Percent Of Float14.40%
Float Shares113.38M
Shares Short Prior Month12.66M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.39M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.13M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield15.79%
Please continue to Armour Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Armour Residential information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Armour Residential's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

Complementary Tools for Armour Stock analysis

When running Armour Residential price analysis, check to measure Armour Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Armour Residential is operating at the current time. Most of Armour Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Armour Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Armour Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Armour Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Armour Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Armour Residential. If investors know Armour will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Armour Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.58
Market Capitalization
870.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.34
Return On Assets
-0.016
Return On Equity
-0.11
The market value of Armour Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Armour that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Armour Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Armour Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Armour Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Armour Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Armour Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Armour Residential value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Armour Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.