Arch Resources Stock Future Price Prediction

ARCH
 Stock
  

USD 143.17  2.95  2.02%   

Arch Resources stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Arch Resources shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Arch Resources' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Arch Resources and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Arch Resources' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arch Resources, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Arch Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Arch Resources based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Arch Resources stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Arch Resources over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.765
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
12.85
EPS Estimate Current Year
54.37
EPS Estimate Next Year
37.36
Wall Street Target Price
189.33
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
9.61
Using Arch Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arch Resources from the perspective of Arch Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arch Resources using Arch Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arch Resources using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arch Resources' stock price.
Arch Resources Receivables Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Receivables Turnover was reported at 9.89. The current Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated to increase to 19.72, while Interest Coverage is projected to decrease to 12.90.

Arch Resources Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Arch Resources' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Arch Resources. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Arch Resources stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Arch Resources may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arch Resources and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arch Resources with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
147.2782
Short Percent
0.1644
Short Ratio
6.07
Shares Short Prior Month
3.6 M
50 Day MA
146.1588
Shares Short
2.9 M

Arch Resources Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Arch Resources' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Arch Resources. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arch Resources can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arch Resources. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arch Resources' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arch Resources.

Arch Resources Implied Volatility

    
  105.2  
Arch Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arch Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arch Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arch Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arch Resources' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Arch Resources. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arch Resources to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arch Resources because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Arch Resources after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 141.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arch Resources contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arch Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.57% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Arch Resources trading at USD143.17, that is roughly USD9.41. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arch Resources' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arch Resources options at the current volatility level of 105.2%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arch Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Arch Resources in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
122.47125.99160.73
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
141.94145.45148.97
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
80.00115.50142.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
15.5017.9220.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arch Resources. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arch Resources' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arch Resources' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Arch Resources.

Arch Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Arch Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arch Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arch Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Arch Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Arch Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arch Resources' historical news coverage. Arch Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 138.13 and 160.73, respectively. We have considered Arch Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 143.17
138.13
Downside
141.65
After-hype Price
160.73
Upside
Arch Resources is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arch Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.

Arch Resources Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Arch Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arch Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arch Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.31  3.52   4.47   1.20  6 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
143.17141.653.06 
24.39  

Arch Resources Hype Timeline

Arch Resources is presently traded for 143.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -4.47 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.2. Arch Resources is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 141.65. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 24.39%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -3.06% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Arch Resources is about 90.72% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 144.37. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Arch Resources was presently reported as 65.44. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 52.76. Arch Resources last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2022. The entity had 1:10 split on the 4th of August 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Please continue to Arch Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Arch Resources Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Arch Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arch Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Arch Resources rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arch Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ASMLASML Holding NV 39.46 4 per month 3.01  0.10  6.27 (6.03)  18.05 
ASXASE Industrial Holding(0.15) 7 per month 2.46  0.09  6.75 (4.14)  16.60 
ADIAnalog Devices(4.86) 8 per month 1.89  0.06  4.54 (3.41)  10.55 
TOELFTokyo Electron 0.00 0 per month 2.30  0.05  5.44 (3.71)  14.46 
IFNNYInfineon Technologies AG 0.00 0 per month 2.50  0.14  6.12 (4.55)  14.84 
ATEYYAdvantest Corp DRC 0.00 0 per month 1.98  0.13  4.56 (3.17)  13.77 
TERTeradyne(3.41) 5 per month 2.66  0.0484  4.72 (4.84)  15.92 
SMIVanEck Vectors ETF 0.00 0 per month 0.19 (0.13)  0.51 (0.47)  1.54 

Arch Resources Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Arch Resources price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arch Resources using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arch Resources charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Arch Resources Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Arch Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arch Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arch Resources based on analysis of Arch Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arch Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arch Resources's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.451.680.490.51
Interest Coverage37.7115.7314.1512.9

Story Coverage note for Arch Resources

The number of cover stories for Arch Resources depends on current market conditions and Arch Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arch Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arch Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Arch Resources Short Properties

Arch Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arch Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arch Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arch Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arch Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding17579000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments339657000.00
Please continue to Arch Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Arch Resources information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arch Resources' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running Arch Resources price analysis, check to measure Arch Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arch Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Arch Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arch Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arch Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arch Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arch Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Resources. If investors know Arch Resources will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.765
Market Capitalization
2.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.453
Return On Assets
0.3424
Return On Equity
1.3582
The market value of Arch Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch Resources that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arch Resources value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.