APA Stock Future Price Prediction

APA
 Stock
  

USD 47.11  0.39  0.83%   

APA Corporation stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of APA shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of APA's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of APA and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from APA's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with APA Corporation, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to APA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of APA based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The APA stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on APA over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.31
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.02
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.53
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.41
Wall Street Target Price
55.38
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.78
Using APA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of APA Corporation from the perspective of APA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards APA using APA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards APA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of APA's stock price.
APA Interest Coverage is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 6.75. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 2.18, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 6.80.

APA Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in APA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards APA. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of APA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long APA may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about APA and may potentially protect profits, hedge APA with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
39.97
Short Percent
0.0338
Short Ratio
1.28
Shares Short Prior Month
8.9 M
50 Day MA
42.97
Shares Short
9.3 M

APA Corporation Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to APA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in APA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding APA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around APA Corporation. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of APA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about APA.

APA Implied Volatility

    
  50.57  
APA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of APA Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if APA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that APA stock will not fluctuate a lot when APA's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in APA. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in APA to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying APA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

APA after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 47.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current APA contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that APA Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.16% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With APA trading at USD47.11, that is roughly USD1.49. If you think that the market is fully incorporating APA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring APA Corporation options at the current volatility level of 50.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of APA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of APA in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
33.5337.0951.82
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
23.0036.5047.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.604.094.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as APA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against APA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, APA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in APA Corporation.

APA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of APA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in APA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of APA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

APA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting APA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on APA's historical news coverage. APA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.29 and 51.41, respectively. We have considered APA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 47.11
47.85
After-hype Price
51.41
Upside
APA is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of APA Corporation is based on 3 months time horizon.

APA Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as APA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading APA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with APA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.42  3.56  0.74   0.20  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.1147.851.57 
202.27  

APA Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of December APA Corporation is traded for 47.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.74 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.2. APA is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 47.85 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 1.57% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on APA is about 745.55% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 47.31. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.99 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.31 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.08 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Please continue to APA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

APA Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to APA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict APA's future price movements. Getting to know how APA rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how APA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

APA Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine APA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for APA using various technical indicators. When you analyze APA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About APA Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of APA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as APA Corporation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of APA based on analysis of APA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to APA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to APA's related companies.
 2018 2019 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.132.252.022.18
Interest Coverage3.745.876.756.93

Story Coverage note for APA

The number of cover stories for APA depends on current market conditions and APA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that APA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about APA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

APA Short Properties

APA's future price predictability will typically decrease when APA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of APA Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential APA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. APA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding375000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments302000000.00
Please continue to APA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running APA Corporation price analysis, check to measure APA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy APA is operating at the current time. Most of APA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of APA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move APA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of APA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is APA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of APA. If investors know APA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about APA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.31
Market Capitalization
15 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.37
Return On Assets
0.23
Return On Equity
0.37
The market value of APA Corporation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of APA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of APA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is APA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because APA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect APA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between APA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine APA value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, APA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.