Applied Stock Future Price Prediction

AMTI -  USA Stock  

USD 16.33  2.66  14.01%

Applied Molecular stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Applied Molecular shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Applied Molecular's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Applied Molecular and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Applied Molecular's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Applied Molecular Transport, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Applied Molecular Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Applied Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Applied Molecular based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Applied stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Applied Molecular over a specific investment horizon. Using Applied Molecular hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Molecular Transport from the perspective of Applied Molecular response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applied Molecular using Applied Molecular's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applied using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applied Molecular's stock price.

Applied Molecular Implied Volatility

    
  140.42  
Applied Molecular's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Molecular Transport stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Molecular's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Molecular stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Molecular's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Applied Molecular. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Applied Molecular to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Applied because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Applied Molecular after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 13.77  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied Molecular's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Applied Molecular in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.7031.1934.71
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
68.0077.2592.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-2.67-2.5-2.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Applied Molecular. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Applied Molecular's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Applied Molecular's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Applied Molecular.

Applied Molecular After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Applied Molecular at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Molecular or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Applied Molecular, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Applied Molecular Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Applied Molecular's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Molecular's historical news coverage. Applied Molecular's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.25 and 17.29, respectively. We have considered Applied Molecular's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.33
29th of November 2021
13.77
After-hype Price
17.29
Upside
Applied Molecular is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Molecular is based on 3 months time horizon.

Applied Molecular Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Applied Molecular is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Molecular backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Molecular, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.90  3.52  2.56   0.02  7 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.3313.7715.68 
123.51  

Applied Molecular Hype Timeline

Applied Molecular is presently traded for 16.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.56 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Applied is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 13.77. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is about 123.51%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -15.68% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.9%. The volatility of related hype on Applied Molecular is about 17600.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 16.31. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Applied Molecular was presently reported as 5.43. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.23. Applied Molecular had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipatedpress releasewill be in about 7 days.
Please continue to Applied Molecular Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Applied Molecular Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Molecular's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Molecular's future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Molecular rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Molecular may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Applied Molecular Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Applied Molecular Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Applied Molecular stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Applied Molecular Transport, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Applied Molecular based on analysis of Applied Molecular hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Applied Molecular's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Applied Molecular's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Applied Molecular

The number of cover stories for Applied Molecular depends on current market conditions and Applied Molecular's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Molecular is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Molecular's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on Applied Molecular

Applied Molecular Short Properties

Applied Molecular's future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Molecular's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Molecular Transport often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Molecular's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Molecular's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.46%
Short Percent Of Float12.85%
Float Shares21.5M
Shares Short Prior Month1.6M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day195k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month179.04k
Date Short Interest15th of April 2021
Please continue to Applied Molecular Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Applied Molecular information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Applied Molecular's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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When running Applied Molecular price analysis, check to measure Applied Molecular's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Molecular is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Molecular's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Molecular's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Molecular's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Molecular to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Applied Molecular's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Molecular. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Molecular listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Applied Molecular is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Molecular's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Molecular's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Molecular's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Molecular's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Molecular's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Applied Molecular value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Molecular's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.