AMSWA Stock Future Price Prediction

AMSWA
 Stock
  

USD 14.60  0.31  2.17%   

Amer Software stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Amer Software shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Amer Software's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Amer Software and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Amer Software's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amer Software, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Amer Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Amer Software based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AMSWA stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amer Software over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.40) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.42
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.4
Wall Street Target Price
21.83
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.08
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.007
Using Amer Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amer Software from the perspective of Amer Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amer Software using Amer Software's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AMSWA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amer Software's stock price.
Amer Software Calculated Tax Rate is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Calculated Tax Rate was at 7.62. The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 5.78, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 30.93.

Amer Software Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Amer Software's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AMSWA. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Amer Software stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Amer Software may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amer Software and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amer Software with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
17.59
Short Percent
0.0128
Short Ratio
4.14
Shares Short Prior Month
491.9 K
50 Day MA
15.8
Shares Short
403.8 K

Amer Software Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Amer Software's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in AMSWA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AMSWA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amer Software. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amer Software's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amer Software.

Amer Software Implied Volatility

    
  43.84  
Amer Software's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amer Software stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amer Software's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amer Software stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amer Software's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Amer Software. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amer Software to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AMSWA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Amer Software after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 14.45  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amer Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amer Software in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.1419.8322.23
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
11.0613.4615.86
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
31.0035.0038.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.260.270.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amer Software. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amer Software's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amer Software's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amer Software.

Amer Software After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Amer Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amer Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amer Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Amer Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Amer Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amer Software's historical news coverage. Amer Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.05 and 16.85, respectively. We have considered Amer Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 14.60
14.45
After-hype Price
16.85
Upside
Amer Software is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amer Software is based on 3 months time horizon.

Amer Software Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Amer Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amer Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amer Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.25  2.40   0.15   0.57  8 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.6014.451.03 
393.44  

Amer Software Hype Timeline

Amer Software is presently traded for 14.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.57. AMSWA is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 14.45. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next newsis expected to be -1.03% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Amer Software is about 105.26% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 15.17. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Amer Software was presently reported as 3.68. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.95. Amer Software last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2022. The entity had 3:2 split on the 24th of July 1990. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please continue to Amer Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amer Software Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Amer Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amer Software's future price movements. Getting to know how Amer Software rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amer Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Amer Software Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AMSWA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AMSWA using various technical indicators. When you analyze AMSWA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Amer Software Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Amer Software stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amer Software, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amer Software based on analysis of Amer Software hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Amer Software's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amer Software's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover33.132.7636.0230.93
Calculated Tax Rate0.828.587.627.82

Story Coverage note for Amer Software

The number of cover stories for Amer Software depends on current market conditions and Amer Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amer Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amer Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Amer Software Short Properties

Amer Software's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amer Software's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amer Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amer Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amer Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.46%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.44
Short Percent Of Float1.56%
Float Shares29.65M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day149.07k
Shares Short Prior Month373.1k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month137.15k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.07%
Please continue to Amer Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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When running Amer Software price analysis, check to measure Amer Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amer Software is operating at the current time. Most of Amer Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amer Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amer Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amer Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amer Software's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amer Software. If investors know AMSWA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amer Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.40) 
Market Capitalization
492 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.007
Return On Assets
0.0483
Return On Equity
0.0818
The market value of Amer Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMSWA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amer Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amer Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amer Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amer Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amer Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amer Software value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amer Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.