Amgen Stock Future Price Prediction

AMGN
 Stock
  

USD 283.29  1.62  0.57%   

Amgen Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Amgen shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Amgen's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Amgen and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Amgen's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amgen Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Amgen based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Amgen stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amgen over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.202
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
4.16
EPS Estimate Current Year
17.66
EPS Estimate Next Year
18.59
Wall Street Target Price
262.6
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
4.44
Using Amgen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amgen Inc from the perspective of Amgen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amgen using Amgen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amgen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amgen's stock price.
Amgen Accrued Expenses Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated at 3.38. Operating Margin is expected to rise to 30.72 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 4.45.

Amgen Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Amgen's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Amgen. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Amgen stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Amgen may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amgen and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amgen with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
246.9466
Short Percent
0.0196
Short Ratio
3.48
Shares Short Prior Month
11.8 M
50 Day MA
262.0808
Shares Short
10.4 M

Amgen Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Amgen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Amgen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amgen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amgen Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amgen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amgen.

Amgen Implied Volatility

    
  32.48  
Amgen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amgen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amgen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amgen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amgen's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Amgen. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amgen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Amgen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Amgen after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 282.42  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amgen contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amgen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.03% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Amgen trading at USD283.29, that is roughly USD5.75. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amgen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amgen Inc options at the current volatility level of 32.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amgen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amgen in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
275.80277.54311.62
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
281.30283.03284.77
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
185.00236.76298.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (12)
LowProjected EPSHigh
16.6716.8616.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amgen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amgen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amgen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amgen Inc.

Amgen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Amgen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amgen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amgen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Amgen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Amgen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amgen's historical news coverage. Amgen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 280.68 and 284.16, respectively. We have considered Amgen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 283.29
280.68
Downside
282.42
After-hype Price
284.16
Upside
Amgen is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amgen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Amgen Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Amgen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amgen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amgen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.25  1.75   0.87   0.34  7 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
283.29282.420.31 
50.58  

Amgen Hype Timeline

Amgen Inc is presently traded for 283.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.87 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.34. Amgen is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 282.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 50.58%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.31% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Amgen is about 128.27% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 283.63. About 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.6. Amgen Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of November 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 22nd of November 1999. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Please continue to Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amgen Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Amgen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amgen's future price movements. Getting to know how Amgen rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amgen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Amgen Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Amgen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amgen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amgen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Amgen Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Amgen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amgen Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amgen based on analysis of Amgen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Amgen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amgen's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity2.793.54.965.35
Interest Coverage18.059.086.386.55

Story Coverage note for Amgen

The number of cover stories for Amgen depends on current market conditions and Amgen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amgen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amgen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Amgen Short Properties

Amgen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amgen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amgen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amgen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amgen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding590000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments8037000000.00
Please continue to Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Amgen Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amgen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Amgen Stock analysis

When running Amgen Inc price analysis, check to measure Amgen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amgen is operating at the current time. Most of Amgen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amgen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amgen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amgen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amgen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amgen. If investors know Amgen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amgen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.202
Market Capitalization
152 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.008) 
Return On Assets
0.0993
Return On Equity
1.1516
The market value of Amgen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amgen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amgen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amgen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amgen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amgen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amgen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amgen value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amgen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.