Ally Financial Stock Future Price Prediction

ALLY
 Stock
  

USD 28.53  0.76  2.59%   

Ally Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ally Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ally Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ally Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ally Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ally Financial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Ally Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ally Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ally Financial stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ally Financial over a specific investment horizon.Using Ally Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ally Financial from the perspective of Ally Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ally Financial using Ally Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ally Financial using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ally Financial's stock price.

Ally Financial Implied Volatility

    
  57.08  
Ally Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ally Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ally Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ally Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ally Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ally Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ally Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ally Financial because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ally Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 28.36  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ally Financial contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ally Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.57% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Ally Financial trading at $28.53, that is roughly $1.02. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ally Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ally Financial options at the current volatility level of 57.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ally Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ally Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.6838.4740.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
25.5828.0630.53
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
53.0066.3681.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
29.7831.8633.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ally Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ally Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ally Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ally Financial.

Ally Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ally Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ally Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ally Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ally Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ally Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ally Financial's historical news coverage. Ally Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.88 and 30.84, respectively. We have considered Ally Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 28.53
28.36
After-hype Price
30.84
Upside
Ally Financial is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ally Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ally Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Ally Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ally Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ally Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.28  2.49   0.18    0.37  10 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.5328.360.60 
389.06  

Ally Financial Hype Timeline

Ally Financial is presently traded for 28.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.18 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.37. Ally Financial is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 28.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.6% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Ally Financial is about 187.22% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 28.16. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.72. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ally Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.83. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of July 2022. The firm had 310:1 split on the 10th of April 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days.
Please continue to Ally Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ally Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ally Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ally Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Ally Financial rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ally Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PYPLPaypal Holdings(1.33) 9 per month 2.27  0.14  6.26 (3.86)  16.33 

Ally Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ally Financial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ally Financial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ally Financial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ally Financial Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ally Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ally Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ally Financial based on analysis of Ally Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ally Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ally Financial's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Ally Financial

The number of cover stories for Ally Financial depends on current market conditions and Ally Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ally Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ally Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ally Financial Short Properties

Ally Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ally Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ally Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ally Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ally Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.51%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.76
Short Percent Of Float3.98%
Float Shares302.51M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.6M
Shares Short Prior Month8.5M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.85M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.55%
Please continue to Ally Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Ally Financial price analysis, check to measure Ally Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ally Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Ally Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ally Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ally Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ally Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ally Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ally Financial. If investors know Ally Financial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ally Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ally Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ally Financial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ally Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ally Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ally Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ally Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ally Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ally Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ally Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.