Allstate Stock Future Price Prediction

ALL
 Stock
  

USD 131.87  2.03  1.52%   

Allstate Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Allstate Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Allstate Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Allstate Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Allstate Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Allstate Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Allstate Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Allstate Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Allstate stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Allstate Corp over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.68) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.09
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.04
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.09
Wall Street Target Price
142.73
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(1.52) 
Using Allstate Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allstate Corp from the perspective of Allstate Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allstate Corp using Allstate Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allstate using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allstate Corp's stock price.
Allstate Corp Earnings per Basic Share are relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Earnings per Basic Share is estimated at 5.47. Earnings per Diluted Share is expected to hike to 5.39 this year, although the value of Cash and Equivalents Turnover will most likely fall to 76.50.

Allstate Corp Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Allstate Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Allstate. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Allstate Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Allstate Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Allstate Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Allstate Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
128.22
Short Percent
0.0135
Short Ratio
1.59
Shares Short Prior Month
5.5 M
50 Day MA
129.31
Shares Short
3.6 M

Allstate Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Allstate Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Allstate. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allstate can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allstate Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allstate Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allstate Corp.

Allstate Corp Implied Volatility

    
  28.0  
Allstate Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allstate Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allstate Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allstate Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allstate Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Allstate Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Allstate Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Allstate because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Allstate Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 134.46  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Allstate contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Allstate Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.75% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Allstate Corp trading at USD131.87, that is roughly USD2.31. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Allstate Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Allstate Corp options at the current volatility level of 28.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allstate Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Allstate Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
119.16121.60147.29
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
129.97132.41134.85
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
105.00134.75176.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
12.8513.5314.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allstate Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allstate Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allstate Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Allstate Corp.

Allstate Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Allstate Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allstate Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allstate Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Allstate Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Allstate Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allstate Corp's historical news coverage. Allstate Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 132.02 and 136.90, respectively. We have considered Allstate Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 131.87
132.02
Downside
134.46
After-hype Price
136.90
Upside
Allstate Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allstate Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Allstate Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Allstate Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allstate Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allstate Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.20  2.46  0.56   0.30  8 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
131.87134.460.42 
87.86  

Allstate Corp Hype Timeline

On the 1st of December Allstate Corp is traded for 131.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.56 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Allstate is expected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 134.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 87.86%. The price surge on the next news is projected to be 0.42% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Allstate Corp is about 164.85% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 132.17. The company reported the last year's revenue of 50.42 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.6 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.97 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Please continue to Allstate Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Allstate Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Allstate Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allstate Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Allstate Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allstate Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BAThe Boeing 4.56 11 per month 3.15  0.0292  4.65 (5.37)  14.69 
KNKnowles Cor(0.33) 3 per month 1.88 (0.0273)  4.26 (3.08)  9.78 
KOCoca-Cola Co 0.56 6 per month 1.17 (0.0197)  2.06 (1.59)  5.09 
JPMJPMorgan Chase Co(2.16) 4 per month 1.27  0.13  4.20 (2.15)  7.57 
NFLXNetflix 10.69 10 per month 2.77  0.12  7.98 (4.80)  17.88 
ULTAUlta Beauty(3.54) 4 per month 1.71  0.06  3.33 (2.33)  8.45 
WMTWalmart 3.00 8 per month 1.08  0.1  2.18 (2.33)  6.89 
TRIThomson Reuters Corp 0.64 9 per month 1.31  0.025  2.64 (2.52)  6.99 
MMATMeta Materials 0.01 5 per month 5.23  0.18  14.17 (9.36)  44.34 

Allstate Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Allstate price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allstate using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allstate charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Allstate Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Allstate Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Allstate Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Allstate Corp based on analysis of Allstate Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Allstate Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Allstate Corp's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover40.840.5750.6942.37
Calculated Tax Rate20.419.8719.9924.77

Story Coverage note for Allstate Corp

The number of cover stories for Allstate Corp depends on current market conditions and Allstate Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allstate Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allstate Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Allstate Corp Short Properties

Allstate Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Allstate Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allstate Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allstate Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allstate Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding315500000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments4772000000.00
Please continue to Allstate Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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When running Allstate Corp price analysis, check to measure Allstate Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allstate Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Allstate Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allstate Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allstate Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allstate Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Allstate Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allstate Corp. If investors know Allstate will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allstate Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.68) 
Market Capitalization
35.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.058
Return On Assets
0.002
Return On Equity
0.0023
The market value of Allstate Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allstate that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allstate Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allstate Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allstate Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allstate Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allstate Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Allstate Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allstate Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.