Alignment Stock Future Price Prediction

ALHC
 Stock
  

USD 11.89  0.17  1.41%   

Alignment Healthcare stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alignment Healthcare shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alignment Healthcare's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alignment Healthcare and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alignment Healthcare's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alignment Healthcare, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Alignment Healthcare Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alignment Healthcare based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alignment stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alignment Healthcare over a specific investment horizon.Using Alignment Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alignment Healthcare from the perspective of Alignment Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alignment Healthcare using Alignment Healthcare's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alignment using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alignment Healthcare's stock price.

Alignment Healthcare Implied Volatility

    
  68.85  
Alignment Healthcare's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alignment Healthcare stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alignment Healthcare's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alignment Healthcare stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alignment Healthcare's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alignment Healthcare. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alignment Healthcare to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alignment because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Alignment Healthcare after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 11.82  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alignment Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alignment Healthcare in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.8314.1618.49
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.0022.8628.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alignment Healthcare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alignment Healthcare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alignment Healthcare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alignment Healthcare.

Alignment Healthcare After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alignment Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alignment Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alignment Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Alignment Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alignment Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alignment Healthcare's historical news coverage. Alignment Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.49 and 16.15, respectively. We have considered Alignment Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 11.89
11.82
After-hype Price
16.15
Upside
Alignment Healthcare is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alignment Healthcare is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alignment Healthcare Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Alignment Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alignment Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alignment Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.13  4.33   0.07   0.00  9 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.8911.820.59 
759.65  

Alignment Healthcare Hype Timeline

Alignment Healthcare is presently traded for 11.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Alignment is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 11.82. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.59% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Alignment Healthcare is about 43300.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 11.89. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.37. Alignment Healthcare recorded a loss per share of 10.95. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Please continue to Alignment Healthcare Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alignment Healthcare Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alignment Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alignment Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how Alignment Healthcare rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alignment Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BSHVFBUSHVELD MINERALS LTD(0.01) 3 per month 16.82  0.14  85.71 (46.15)  273.33 

Alignment Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alignment price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alignment using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alignment charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Alignment Healthcare Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Alignment Healthcare stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alignment Healthcare, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alignment Healthcare based on analysis of Alignment Healthcare hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alignment Healthcare's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alignment Healthcare's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Alignment Healthcare

The number of cover stories for Alignment Healthcare depends on current market conditions and Alignment Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alignment Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alignment Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Alignment Healthcare Short Properties

Alignment Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alignment Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alignment Healthcare often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alignment Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alignment Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.48%
Short Percent Of Float3.26%
Float Shares82.65M
Shares Short Prior Month3.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.68M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month770.62k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Please continue to Alignment Healthcare Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alignment Healthcare information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alignment Healthcare's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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When running Alignment Healthcare price analysis, check to measure Alignment Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alignment Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Alignment Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alignment Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alignment Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alignment Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alignment Healthcare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alignment Healthcare. If investors know Alignment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alignment Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alignment Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alignment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alignment Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alignment Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alignment Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alignment Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alignment Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alignment Healthcare value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alignment Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.