Alico Stock Future Price Prediction

ALCO
 Stock
  

USD 26.35  3.06  10.40%   

Alico Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alico shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alico's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alico and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alico's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alico Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Alico Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alico based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alico stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alico over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.90) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.24) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.64) 
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.67
Wall Street Target Price
40
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.06
Using Alico hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alico Inc from the perspective of Alico response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Alico Inventory Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Inventory Turnover is estimated at 2.72. Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to rise to 32.01 this year, although the value of Operating Margin will most likely fall to 11.66.

Alico Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Alico's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Alico. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alico can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alico Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alico's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alico.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alico. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alico to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alico because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Alico after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 26.46  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alico's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alico in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
23.7231.2033.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
24.3326.7729.22
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
44.0044.0044.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.870.870.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alico. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alico's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alico's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alico Inc.

Alico After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alico at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alico or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alico, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Alico Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alico's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alico's historical news coverage. Alico's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.02 and 28.90, respectively. We have considered Alico's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 26.35
26.46
After-hype Price
28.90
Upside
Alico is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alico Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alico Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Alico is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alico backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alico, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29  2.46  0.11   0.01  3 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
26.3526.460.42 
647.37  

Alico Hype Timeline

Alico Inc is presently traded for 26.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Alico is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 26.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is forecasted to be 0.42% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Alico is about 12300.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 26.36. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 108.56 M. Net Income was 34.86 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 23.89 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Please continue to Alico Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alico Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alico's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alico's future price movements. Getting to know how Alico rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alico may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Alico Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alico price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alico using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alico charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Alico Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Alico stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alico Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alico based on analysis of Alico hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alico's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alico's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.650.50.450.53
Interest Coverage1.183.644.195.81

Story Coverage note for Alico

The number of cover stories for Alico depends on current market conditions and Alico's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alico is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alico's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Alico Short Properties

Alico's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alico's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alico Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alico's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alico's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7519000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments886000.00
Please continue to Alico Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alico Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alico's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for Alico Stock analysis

When running Alico Inc price analysis, check to measure Alico's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alico is operating at the current time. Most of Alico's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alico's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alico's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alico to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alico's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alico. If investors know Alico will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alico listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.90) 
Market Capitalization
223.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.26) 
Return On Assets
(0.0046) 
Return On Equity
0.1237
The market value of Alico Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alico that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alico's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alico's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alico's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alico's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alico's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alico value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alico's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.