AAR Corp Stock Future Price Prediction

AIR
 Stock
  

USD 45.13  0.09  0.20%   

AAR Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AAR Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AAR Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AAR Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AAR Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AAR Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to AAR Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AAR Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AAR Corp stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AAR Corp over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.68
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.36
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.18
Wall Street Target Price
52.67
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.67
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.088
Using AAR Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AAR Corp from the perspective of AAR Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AAR Corp using AAR Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AAR Corp using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AAR Corp's stock price.
AAR Corp Cash Flow Per Share is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. AAR Corp reported last year Cash Flow Per Share of 2.12. As of 08/09/2022, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.21, while Operating Margin is likely to drop 6.00.

AAR Corp Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in AAR Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AAR Corp. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AAR Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long AAR Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AAR Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge AAR Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
42.49
Short Percent
0.0925
Short Ratio
8.73
Shares Short Prior Month
1.9 M
50 Day MA
44.01
Shares Short
2.6 M
Beta
1.53

AAR Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to AAR Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in AAR Corp. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AAR Corp can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AAR Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AAR Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AAR Corp.

AAR Corp Implied Volatility

    
  34.38  
AAR Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AAR Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AAR Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AAR Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when AAR Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AAR Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AAR Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AAR Corp because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

AAR Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 45.06  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AAR Corp contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AAR Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.15% per day over the life of the 2022-08-19 option contract. With AAR Corp trading at $45.13, that is roughly $0.97. If you think that the market is fully incorporating AAR Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AAR Corp options at the current volatility level of 34.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AAR Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AAR Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
45.0247.5550.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
40.8143.3445.86
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0049.5053.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.502.502.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AAR Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AAR Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AAR Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AAR Corp.

AAR Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AAR Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AAR Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of AAR Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AAR Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AAR Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AAR Corp's historical news coverage. AAR Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.53 and 47.59, respectively. We have considered AAR Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 45.13
45.06
After-hype Price
47.59
Upside
AAR Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AAR Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

AAR Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as AAR Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AAR Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AAR Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.02  2.55  0.05   0.00  7 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
45.1345.060.04 
107.14  

AAR Corp Hype Timeline

On the 9th of August AAR Corp is traded for 45.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. AAR Corp is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 45.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 107.14%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.04% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on AAR Corp is about 1176.92% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 45.13. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.82 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 77.9 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 313.2 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 7 days.
Please continue to AAR Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

AAR Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AAR Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AAR Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how AAR Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AAR Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LZBLa-Z-Boy 0.63 7 per month 2.33  0.06  3.67 (4.47)  13.54 
CSCOCisco Systems 0.44 10 per month 0.00 (0.05)  2.73 (1.81)  17.00 
CATCaterpillar(2.09) 8 per month 0.00 (0.08)  3.82 (4.35)  11.37 
AAAlcoa Corp(0.20) 10 per month 0.00 (0.1)  5.50 (6.00)  17.64 
DISWalt Disney(0.02) 8 per month 0.00 (0.0111)  3.73 (3.76)  7.34 
JNJJohnson Johnson 0.48 8 per month 0.00 (0.0224)  1.75 (1.91)  5.07 
JPMJP Morgan Chase(2.70) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0441)  3.03 (2.51)  10.79 
HPQHP Inc 0.30 8 per month 0.00 (0.06)  4.02 (4.31)  12.62 
HDHome Depot 1.21 9 per month 2.09  0.0314  2.39 (3.54)  7.62 

AAR Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AAR Corp price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AAR Corp using various technical indicators. When you analyze AAR Corp charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About AAR Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of AAR Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AAR Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AAR Corp based on analysis of AAR Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AAR Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AAR Corp's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.660.140.09560.0981
Interest Coverage4.9117.7147.7451.51

Story Coverage note for AAR Corp

The number of cover stories for AAR Corp depends on current market conditions and AAR Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AAR Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AAR Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AAR Corp Short Properties

AAR Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when AAR Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AAR Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AAR Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AAR Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out7.40%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.08
Short Percent Of Float9.25%
Float Shares32.99M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day277.17k
Shares Short Prior Month1.87M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month304.5k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.17%
Please continue to AAR Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the AAR Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AAR Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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When running AAR Corp price analysis, check to measure AAR Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAR Corp is operating at the current time. Most of AAR Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAR Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAR Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAR Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AAR Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AAR Corp. If investors know AAR Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AAR Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.68
Market Capitalization
1.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.088
Return On Assets
0.0447
Return On Equity
0.0782
The market value of AAR Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AAR Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AAR Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AAR Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AAR Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AAR Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AAR Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AAR Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AAR Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.