Ashford Stock Future Price Prediction

AHT
 Stock
  

USD 6.56  0.10  1.50%   

Ashford Hospitality Trust stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ashford Hospitality shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ashford Hospitality's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ashford Hospitality and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ashford Hospitality's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ashford Hospitality Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Ashford Hospitality Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ashford Hospitality based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ashford stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ashford Hospitality over a specific investment horizon.
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(1.40) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
(4.22) 
EPS Estimate Next Year
(4.69) 
Wall Street Target Price
11.9
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.84) 
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.33
Using Ashford Hospitality hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ashford Hospitality Trust from the perspective of Ashford Hospitality response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ashford Hospitality using Ashford Hospitality's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ashford using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ashford Hospitality's stock price.
Ashford Hospitality Total Assets Per Share are comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Ashford Hospitality reported Total Assets Per Share of 118.82 in 2021. Quick Ratio is likely to gain to 4.93 in 2022, whereas Cash Flow Per Share is likely to drop (4.29)  in 2022.

Ashford Hospitality Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Ashford Hospitality's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ashford. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ashford Hospitality stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ashford Hospitality may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ashford Hospitality and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ashford Hospitality with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
7.85
Short Percent
0.0579
Short Ratio
5.57
Shares Short Prior Month
1.9 M
50 Day MA
7.2
Shares Short
M

Ashford Hospitality Trust Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Ashford Hospitality's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Ashford. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ashford can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ashford Hospitality Trust. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ashford Hospitality's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ashford Hospitality.

Ashford Hospitality Implied Volatility

    
  147.03  
Ashford Hospitality's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ashford Hospitality Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ashford Hospitality's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ashford Hospitality stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ashford Hospitality's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ashford Hospitality. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ashford Hospitality to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ashford because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ashford Hospitality after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 6.57  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ashford contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ashford Hospitality Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 9.19% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Ashford Hospitality trading at $6.56, that is roughly $0.6. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ashford Hospitality's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ashford Hospitality Trust options at the current volatility level of 147.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashford Hospitality's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ashford Hospitality in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.9011.0115.15
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3.447.5811.71
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
17.0025.0036.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-3.27-2.51-1.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ashford Hospitality. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ashford Hospitality's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ashford Hospitality's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ashford Hospitality Trust.

Ashford Hospitality After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ashford Hospitality at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ashford Hospitality or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ashford Hospitality, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ashford Hospitality Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ashford Hospitality's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ashford Hospitality's historical news coverage. Ashford Hospitality's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.43 and 10.71, respectively. We have considered Ashford Hospitality's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 6.56
6.57
After-hype Price
10.71
Upside
Ashford Hospitality is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ashford Hospitality Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ashford Hospitality Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Ashford Hospitality is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ashford Hospitality backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ashford Hospitality, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.51  4.13  0.01    0.19  1 Events / Month1 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.566.570.15 
41,300  

Ashford Hospitality Hype Timeline

On the 27th of November Ashford Hospitality Trust is traded for 6.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Ashford is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 6.57 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.15% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.51%. The volatility of related hype on Ashford Hospitality is about 1101.33% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 6.37. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.09 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (174.44 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 114.63 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Please continue to Ashford Hospitality Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ashford Hospitality Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ashford Hospitality's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. Getting to know how Ashford Hospitality rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ashford Hospitality may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Ashford Hospitality Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ashford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ashford Hospitality Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ashford Hospitality stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ashford Hospitality Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ashford Hospitality based on analysis of Ashford Hospitality hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ashford Hospitality's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ashford Hospitality's related companies.
 2018 2019 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity8.6815.2814.84
Interest Coverage0.390.340.55

Story Coverage note for Ashford Hospitality

The number of cover stories for Ashford Hospitality depends on current market conditions and Ashford Hospitality's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ashford Hospitality is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ashford Hospitality's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ashford Hospitality Short Properties

Ashford Hospitality's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ashford Hospitality's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ashford Hospitality Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ashford Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashford Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.67%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.60
Short Percent Of Float5.73%
Float Shares31.78M
Shares Short Prior Month2.08M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day309.73k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month425.47k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield9.22%
Please continue to Ashford Hospitality Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ashford Hospitality Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ashford Hospitality's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for Ashford Stock analysis

When running Ashford Hospitality Trust price analysis, check to measure Ashford Hospitality's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashford Hospitality is operating at the current time. Most of Ashford Hospitality's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashford Hospitality's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashford Hospitality to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ashford Hospitality's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashford Hospitality. If investors know Ashford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ashford Hospitality listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
237 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.33
Return On Assets
0.0068
Return On Equity
(22.60) 
The market value of Ashford Hospitality Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ashford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ashford Hospitality's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ashford Hospitality's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ashford Hospitality's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ashford Hospitality's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashford Hospitality's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ashford Hospitality value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashford Hospitality's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.