AGNC Investment Stock Future Price Prediction

AGNC
 Stock
  

USD 10.00  0.02  0.20%   

AGNC Investment Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AGNC Investment shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AGNC Investment's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AGNC Investment and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AGNC Investment's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AGNC Investment Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to AGNC Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AGNC Investment based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AGNC Investment stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AGNC Investment over a specific investment horizon.Using AGNC Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AGNC Investment Corp from the perspective of AGNC Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AGNC Investment using AGNC Investment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AGNC Investment using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AGNC Investment's stock price.
AGNC Investment Interest Coverage is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 19.38. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 0.0256, whereas Calculated Tax Rate is forecasted to decline to 0.85.

AGNC Investment Implied Volatility

    
  46.04  
AGNC Investment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AGNC Investment Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AGNC Investment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AGNC Investment stock will not fluctuate a lot when AGNC Investment's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AGNC Investment. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AGNC Investment to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AGNC Investment because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

AGNC Investment after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.87  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AGNC Investment contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AGNC Investment Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.88% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With AGNC Investment trading at USD10.0, that is roughly USD0.29. If you think that the market is fully incorporating AGNC Investment's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AGNC Investment Corp options at the current volatility level of 46.04%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AGNC Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AGNC Investment in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.2511.5714.89
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
6.589.9013.22
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0017.3018.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.832.922.96
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AGNC Investment. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AGNC Investment's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AGNC Investment's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AGNC Investment Corp.

AGNC Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AGNC Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AGNC Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AGNC Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AGNC Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AGNC Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AGNC Investment's historical news coverage. AGNC Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.55 and 13.19, respectively. We have considered AGNC Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 10.00
9.87
After-hype Price
13.19
Upside
AGNC Investment is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AGNC Investment Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

AGNC Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as AGNC Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AGNC Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AGNC Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15  3.32   0.04   0.19  4 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.009.870.50 
1,186  

AGNC Investment Hype Timeline

AGNC Investment Corp is presently traded for 10.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. AGNC Investment is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 9.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.5% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on AGNC Investment is about 262.57% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 10.19. About 43.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.02. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AGNC Investment Corp recorded a loss per share of 1.86. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days.
Please continue to AGNC Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

AGNC Investment Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AGNC Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AGNC Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how AGNC Investment rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AGNC Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HPQHP Inc 0.77 9 per month 2.04  0.0123  4.77 (3.64)  10.27 
JPMJPMorgan Chase Co(1.48) 7 per month 1.40  0.09  4.20 (2.80)  8.36 
DISWalt Disney 0.25 7 per month 0.00 (0.11)  4.28 (3.79)  17.60 
WMTWalmart(1.84) 8 per month 1.19  0.06  2.11 (2.33)  7.94 
JNJJohnson Johnson(0.21) 6 per month 0.94  0.06  1.58 (1.54)  5.18 
MSFTMicrosoft 6.70 8 per month 0.00 (0.0369)  3.92 (3.54)  11.64 
BAThe Boeing 7.96 9 per month 3.16  0.06  4.65 (5.37)  14.69 
CSCOCisco Systems 0.15 8 per month 1.33  0.05  3.23 (1.96)  6.46 
HDHome Depot(0.92) 8 per month 1.91  0.044  2.81 (2.50)  11.25 

AGNC Investment Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AGNC Investment price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AGNC Investment using various technical indicators. When you analyze AGNC Investment charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About AGNC Investment Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of AGNC Investment stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AGNC Investment Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AGNC Investment based on analysis of AGNC Investment hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AGNC Investment's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AGNC Investment's related companies.
 2017 2018 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.04080.02780.0250.0256
Interest Coverage100.7316.8519.3819.89

Story Coverage note for AGNC Investment

The number of cover stories for AGNC Investment depends on current market conditions and AGNC Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AGNC Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AGNC Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AGNC Investment Short Properties

AGNC Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when AGNC Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AGNC Investment Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AGNC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGNC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding551600000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments998000000.00
Please continue to AGNC Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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When running AGNC Investment Corp price analysis, check to measure AGNC Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AGNC Investment is operating at the current time. Most of AGNC Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AGNC Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AGNC Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AGNC Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AGNC Investment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGNC Investment. If investors know AGNC Investment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AGNC Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of AGNC Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AGNC Investment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AGNC Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AGNC Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AGNC Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AGNC Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AGNC Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AGNC Investment value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AGNC Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.