Autodesk Stock Future Price Prediction

ADSK
 Stock
  

USD 201.11  5.82  2.81%   

Autodesk stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Autodesk shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Autodesk's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Autodesk and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Autodesk's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Autodesk, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Autodesk Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Autodesk based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Autodesk stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Autodesk over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.49
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.02
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.78
Wall Street Target Price
231.63
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.7
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Using Autodesk hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Autodesk from the perspective of Autodesk response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Autodesk using Autodesk's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Autodesk using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Autodesk's stock price.
Autodesk Receivables Turnover is increasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Receivables Turnover was reported at 6.45. The current Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated to increase to 8.02, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to decrease to 2.23.

Autodesk Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Autodesk's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Autodesk. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Autodesk stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Autodesk may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Autodesk and may potentially protect profits, hedge Autodesk with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
201.06
Short Percent
0.0108
Short Ratio
1.58
Shares Short Prior Month
2.8 M
50 Day MA
201.66
Shares Short
2.3 M

Autodesk Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Autodesk's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Autodesk. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Autodesk can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Autodesk. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Autodesk's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Autodesk.

Autodesk Implied Volatility

    
  38.9  
Autodesk's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Autodesk stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Autodesk's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Autodesk stock will not fluctuate a lot when Autodesk's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Autodesk. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Autodesk to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Autodesk because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Autodesk after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 202.06  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Autodesk contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Autodesk will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.43% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Autodesk trading at USD201.11, that is roughly USD4.89. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Autodesk's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Autodesk options at the current volatility level of 38.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Autodesk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Autodesk in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
181.76256.31259.50
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
256.00334.20370.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.872.932.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Autodesk. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Autodesk's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Autodesk's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Autodesk.

Autodesk After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Autodesk at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Autodesk or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Autodesk, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Autodesk Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Autodesk's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Autodesk's historical news coverage. Autodesk's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 198.87 and 205.25, respectively. We have considered Autodesk's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 201.11
198.87
Downside
202.06
After-hype Price
205.25
Upside
Autodesk is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Autodesk is based on 3 months time horizon.

Autodesk Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Autodesk is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Autodesk backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Autodesk, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.07  3.16  0.11   0.00  6 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
201.11202.060.05 
196.27  

Autodesk Hype Timeline

Autodesk is presently traded for 201.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Autodesk is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 202.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 196.27%. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 0.05% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Autodesk is about 4861.54% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 201.11. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.39 B. Net Income was 497 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.02 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 6 days.
Please continue to Autodesk Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Autodesk Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Autodesk's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Autodesk's future price movements. Getting to know how Autodesk rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Autodesk may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Autodesk Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Autodesk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Autodesk using various technical indicators. When you analyze Autodesk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Autodesk Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Autodesk stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Autodesk, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Autodesk based on analysis of Autodesk hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Autodesk's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Autodesk's related companies.
 2016 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.492.682.9
Interest Coverage6.359.511.41

Story Coverage note for Autodesk

The number of cover stories for Autodesk depends on current market conditions and Autodesk's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Autodesk is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Autodesk's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Autodesk Short Properties

Autodesk's future price predictability will typically decrease when Autodesk's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Autodesk often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Autodesk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Autodesk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding222000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments1764100000.00
Please continue to Autodesk Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Autodesk price analysis, check to measure Autodesk's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Autodesk is operating at the current time. Most of Autodesk's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Autodesk's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Autodesk's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Autodesk to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Go
Is Autodesk's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Autodesk. If investors know Autodesk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Autodesk listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.49
Market Capitalization
44.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
0.0713
Return On Equity
0.57
The market value of Autodesk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Autodesk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Autodesk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Autodesk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Autodesk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Autodesk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Autodesk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Autodesk value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Autodesk's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.