Apple Stock Future Price Prediction

AAPL
 Stock
  

USD 175.36  2.33  1.35%   

Apple Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Apple shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Apple's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Apple and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Apple's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Apple Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Apple based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Apple stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Apple over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.077
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.31
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.1
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.44
Wall Street Target Price
182.51
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.16
Using Apple hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apple Inc from the perspective of Apple response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Apple using Apple's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Apple using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Apple's stock price.
Apple Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated at 6.67. Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to hike to 11.15 this year, although the value of Total Assets Per Share will most likely fall to 15.15.

Apple Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Apple's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Apple. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Apple stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Apple may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Apple and may potentially protect profits, hedge Apple with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
160.0
Short Percent
0.0067
Short Ratio
1.47
Shares Short Prior Month
105 M
50 Day MA
149.22
Shares Short
107.5 M

Apple Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Apple's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Apple. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Apple can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Apple Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Apple's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Apple.

Apple Implied Volatility

    
  28.4  
Apple's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Apple Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Apple's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Apple stock will not fluctuate a lot when Apple's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Apple. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Apple to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Apple because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Apple after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 175.01  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Apple contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Apple Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.78% per day over the life of the 2022-08-19 option contract. With Apple trading at $175.36, that is roughly $3.11. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Apple's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Apple Inc options at the current volatility level of 28.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Apple's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Apple in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
156.66177.50179.49
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
145.00180.31210.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (12)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.415.826.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Apple. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Apple's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Apple's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Apple Inc.

Apple After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Apple at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apple or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apple, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Apple Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Apple's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apple's historical news coverage. Apple's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 173.02 and 177.00, respectively. We have considered Apple's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 175.36
173.02
Downside
175.01
After-hype Price
177.00
Upside
Apple is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apple Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Apple Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Apple is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apple backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apple, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.41  1.99  0.94   0.30  10 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
175.36175.010.54 
86.52  

Apple Hype Timeline

Apple Inc is presently traded for 175.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.94 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Apple is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 175.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 86.52%. The price surge on the next news is forecasted to be 0.54% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Apple is about 273.44% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 175.66. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 387.54 B. Net Income was 99.63 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 152.84 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Please continue to Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Apple Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Apple's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apple's future price movements. Getting to know how Apple rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apple may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
COSTCostco Wholesale(3.08) 9 per month 2.62  0.0446  3.68 (2.39)  14.73 
ECLEcolab Inc 3.84 8 per month 1.80  0.0306  4.01 (3.35)  10.05 
BBBYBed Bath Beyond(0.24) 8 per month 6.67  0.15  23.55 (9.94)  54.03 
ATAIAtai Life Sciences 0.27 5 per month 4.15  0.12  8.15 (7.86)  20.29 
TRVThe Travelers Companies 1.99 9 per month 1.60 (0.06)  2.28 (2.33)  9.03 
INTCIntel Corp 0.15 7 per month 0.00 (0.15)  3.11 (3.61)  12.47 
CVXChevron Corp 4.92 8 per month 0.00 (0.07)  3.06 (4.35)  11.62 
TATT Inc(0.59) 10 per month 0.00 (0.14)  1.82 (2.45)  10.60 
DISWalt Disney(0.71) 8 per month 1.76  0.08  3.98 (3.76)  7.34 

Apple Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Apple price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apple using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apple charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Apple Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Apple stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Apple Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Apple based on analysis of Apple hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Apple's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Apple's related companies.
 2016 2021 2022 (projected)
Calculated Tax Rate13.324.5625.69
Long Term Debt to Equity1.730.730.72

Story Coverage note for Apple

The number of cover stories for Apple depends on current market conditions and Apple's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apple is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apple's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Apple Short Properties

Apple's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apple's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apple Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apple's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apple's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date5th of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.67%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.89
Short Percent Of Float0.67%
Float Shares16.05B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day67.47M
Shares Short Prior Month112.99M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month81.15M
Date Short Interest29th of July 2022
Please continue to Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Apple Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Apple's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

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When running Apple Inc price analysis, check to measure Apple's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Apple is operating at the current time. Most of Apple's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Apple's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Apple's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Apple to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Apple's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apple. If investors know Apple will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Apple listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.077
Market Capitalization
2783.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.019
Return On Assets
0.22
Return On Equity
1.63
The market value of Apple Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apple that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apple's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apple's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Apple's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apple's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apple's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Apple value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apple's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.