Advance Stock Future Price Prediction

AAP -  USA Stock  

USD 181.89  14.18  7.23%

Advance Auto Parts stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Advance Auto shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Advance Auto's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Advance Auto and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Advance Auto's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Advance Auto Parts, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Advance Auto based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Advance stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Advance Auto over a specific investment horizon. Using Advance Auto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advance Auto Parts from the perspective of Advance Auto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Advance Auto using Advance Auto's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Advance using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Advance Auto's stock price.
Advance Auto Operating Margin is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advance Auto reported last year Operating Margin of 8.23. As of 22nd of May 2022, Return on Investment is likely to grow to 26.54, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 71.62.

Advance Auto Implied Volatility

    
  62.97  
Advance Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advance Auto Parts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advance Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advance Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advance Auto's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Advance Auto. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Advance Auto to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Advance because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Advance Auto after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 182.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advance Auto in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
163.70202.46205.03
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
178.75181.32183.89
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00255.77290.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
11.5011.8712.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Advance Auto After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Advance Auto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advance Auto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Advance Auto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Advance Auto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Advance Auto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advance Auto's historical news coverage. Advance Auto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 179.78 and 184.92, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 181.89
179.78
Downside
182.35
After-hype Price
184.92
Upside
Advance Auto is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advance Auto Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.

Advance Auto Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Advance Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advance Auto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advance Auto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
  0.15  2.57  0.46   0.04  10 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
181.89182.350.25 
83.99  

Advance Auto Hype Timeline

On the 22nd of May Advance Auto Parts is traded for 181.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.46 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Advance is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 182.35 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 83.99%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.25% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Advance Auto is about 1093.62% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 181.93. The company reported the last year's revenue of 11 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 616.11 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.93 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Please continue to Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Advance Auto Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Advance Auto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advance Auto's future price movements. Getting to know how Advance Auto rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advance Auto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Advance Auto Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Advance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Advance Auto Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Advance Auto stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Advance Auto Parts, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Advance Auto based on analysis of Advance Auto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Advance Auto's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Advance Auto's related companies.
 2016 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.360.43
Interest Coverage13.1516.13

Story Coverage note for Advance Auto

The number of cover stories for Advance Auto depends on current market conditions and Advance Auto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advance Auto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advance Auto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Advance Auto Short Properties

Advance Auto's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advance Auto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advance Auto Parts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advance Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advance Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out6.07%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.50
Short Percent Of Float6.84%
Float Shares60.36M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day752.16k
Shares Short Prior Month3.42M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month860.22k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.28%
Please continue to Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for Advance Stock analysis

When running Advance Auto Parts price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Advance Auto value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.