Aarons Stock Future Price Prediction

AAN
 Stock
  

USD 14.75  0.20  1.37%   

Aarons Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Aarons Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Aarons Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Aarons Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Aarons Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aarons Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Aarons Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aarons Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Aarons stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Aarons Holdings over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.35
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.74
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.11
Wall Street Target Price
27.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.68
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.052
Using Aarons Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aarons Holdings from the perspective of Aarons Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aarons Holdings using Aarons Holdings' options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aarons using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aarons Holdings' stock price.
Aarons Holdings Accounts Payable Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated at 48.81. Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to rise to 17.90 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 14.53.

Aarons Holdings Implied Volatility

    
  10.47  
Aarons Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aarons Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aarons Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aarons Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aarons Holdings' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Aarons Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aarons Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aarons because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Aarons Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 14.29  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aarons Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aarons Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.2818.4621.44
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
11.7114.6917.67
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
27.0031.8037.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.433.523.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aarons Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aarons Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aarons Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aarons Holdings.

Aarons Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aarons Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aarons Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Aarons Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Aarons Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aarons Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aarons Holdings' historical news coverage. Aarons Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.31 and 17.27, respectively. We have considered Aarons Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 14.75
14.29
After-hype Price
17.27
Upside
Aarons Holdings is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aarons Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aarons Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Aarons Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aarons Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aarons Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.51  2.98   0.46   0.53  8 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.7514.293.12 
331.11  

Aarons Holdings Hype Timeline

On the 2nd of July Aarons Holdings is traded for 14.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.46 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.53. Aarons is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 14.29. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -3.12% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.51%. The volatility of related hype on Aarons Holdings is about 285.62% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 15.28. About 101.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.64. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aarons Holdings next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 15th of June 2022. The entity had 3:2 split on the 16th of April 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 8 days.
Please continue to Aarons Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Aarons Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aarons Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aarons Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Aarons Holdings rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aarons Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AAPAdvance Auto Parts 6.09 7 per month 0.00 (0.0387)  3.02 (4.66)  13.49 
BBBYBed Bath Beyond 0.94 9 per month 0.00 (0.38)  8.08 (9.94)  32.56 
BBYBest Buy Company(2.61) 9 per month 0.00 (0.12)  4.31 (5.58)  14.91 
GEGeneral Electric 0.57 10 per month 0.00 (0.16)  2.80 (4.93)  12.00 
CSCOCisco Systems 0.01 8 per month 0.00 (0.08)  2.73 (3.26)  17.06 
CATCaterpillar 4.22 9 per month 0.00 (0.0486)  3.20 (4.35)  10.92 
TRVThe Travelers Companies 0.98 10 per month 0.00  0.06  2.01 (2.17)  6.41 
AAAlcoa Corp(0.90) 10 per month 0.00 (0.18)  5.10 (6.70)  21.93 
KOCoca-Cola 0.09 7 per month 1.75  0.17  2.14 (2.01)  10.05 

Aarons Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aarons price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aarons using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aarons charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Aarons Holdings Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Aarons Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aarons Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aarons Holdings based on analysis of Aarons Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aarons Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aarons Holdings's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.20.05070.04560.0468
Interest Coverage6.981.45 K1.31 K1.41 K

Story Coverage note for Aarons Holdings

The number of cover stories for Aarons Holdings depends on current market conditions and Aarons Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aarons Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aarons Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Aarons Holdings Short Properties

Aarons Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aarons Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aarons Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aarons Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aarons Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out6.32%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.30
Short Percent Of Float9.15%
Float Shares30.26M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day425.41k
Shares Short Prior Month1.62M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month285.48k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.03%
Please continue to Aarons Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Aarons Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aarons Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for Aarons Stock analysis

When running Aarons Holdings price analysis, check to measure Aarons Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aarons Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Aarons Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aarons Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aarons Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aarons Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aarons Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aarons Holdings. If investors know Aarons will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aarons Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.35
Market Capitalization
446.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.052
Return On Assets
0.0953
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Aarons Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aarons that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aarons Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aarons Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aarons Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aarons Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aarons Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aarons Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aarons Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.