National Stock Performance

NCMI
 Stock
  

USD 0.43  0.01  2.38%   

The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.4833, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what National's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, National CineMedia will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to National CineMedia price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. National CineMedia exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. National CineMedia has an expected return of -1.22%. Please be advised to verify National CineMedia value at risk and the relationship between the expected short fall and price action indicator to decide if National CineMedia performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
  
National Performance
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Over the last 90 days National CineMedia has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite weak performance in the last few months, the Stock's primary indicators remain nearly stable which may send shares a bit higher in January 2023. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long-run up-swing for the company stockholders. ...more

Structure and Payout Changes

Forward Annual Dividend Yield
0.26
Forward Annual Dividend Rate
0.12
Dividend Date
2022-09-06
Ex Dividend Date
2022-08-19

National Price Channel

Begin Period Cash Flow180300000.00
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-5400000.00

National CineMedia Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  112.00  in National CineMedia on September 2, 2022 and sell it today you would lose (69.00)  from holding National CineMedia or give up 61.61% of portfolio value over 90 days. National CineMedia is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 7.6488% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 66% of stocks are less volatile than National, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Daily Expected Return (%)  
       Risk (%)  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days National CineMedia is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 5.07 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.16 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The NYSE Composite is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of volatility.

National CineMedia Market Risk Analysis

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National CineMedia's investment risk. Standard deviation is the most common way to measure market volatility of stocks, such as National CineMedia, and traders can use it to determine the average amount a National CineMedia's price has deviated from the expected return over a period of time. It is calculated by determining the expected price for the established period and then subtracting this figure from each price point. The differences are then squared, summed, and averaged to produce the variance.

Sharpe Ratio = -0.1601

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Negative ReturnsNCMI
Estimated Market Risk
 7.65
  actual daily
 
 66 %
of total potential
 
6666
Expected Return
 -1.22
  actual daily
 
 0 %
of total potential
 
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Risk-Adjusted Return
 -0.16
  actual daily
 
 0 %
of total potential
 
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Based on monthly moving average National CineMedia is performing at about 0% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of National CineMedia by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.

About National CineMedia Performance

To evaluate National CineMedia Stock as a possible investment, you need to clearly understand its upside potential, downside risk, and overall future performance outlook. You may be satisfied when National CineMedia generates a 15% return over the last few months, but what if the market is generating 25% over the same period? In this case, it makes sense to compare National Stock's performance with different market indexes, such as the Dow or NASDAQ Composite. These indexes can act as benchmarks that will help you to understand National CineMedia market performance in a much more refined way. The Macroaxis performance score is an integer between 0 and 100 that represents National's market performance from a risk-adjusted return perspective. Generally speaking, the higher the score, the better is overall performance as compared to other investors. The score is normalized against the average investing universe (the best we can interpret from the data available). Within this methodology, scores of individual equity instruments will always be inferior to the scores of portfolios of equities as portfolios typically diversify a lot of unsystematic risks away. The formula to derive the Macroaxis score bases on multiple unequally-weighted factors. For more information, refer to our portfolio performance evaluation section.
Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Return on Investment(12.46) (12.78) 
Return on Average Assets(7.46) (7.66) 
Return on Invested Capital 0.14  0.13 
Return on Sales 1.94  2.09 

Things to note about National CineMedia

Checking the ongoing alerts about National CineMedia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for National CineMedia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

National CineMedia Alerts

Equity Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

National CineMedia generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
National CineMedia has high historical volatility and very poor performance
National CineMedia has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company currently holds 1.09 B in liabilities. National CineMedia has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist National CineMedia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National CineMedia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National CineMedia sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National CineMedia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 114.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (118.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 37.7 M.
National CineMedia currently holds about 73.4 M in cash with (95.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.9, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Latest headline from news.google.com: Hot Stocks Movie theater chains rally YMM jumps on earnings PAGS falls - Seeking Alpha
Additionally, see Correlation Analysis. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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Is National CineMedia's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National CineMedia. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National CineMedia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.15) 
Market Capitalization
34.2 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.72
Return On Assets
(0.0053) 
The market value of National CineMedia is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National CineMedia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National CineMedia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National CineMedia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National CineMedia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National CineMedia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National CineMedia value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National CineMedia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.