VANGUARD Mutual Fund Market Value

VFIAX
 Fund
  

USD 377.30  0.27  0.07%   

VANGUARD 500's market value is the price at which a share of VANGUARD 500 stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of VANGUARD 500 INDEX investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of VANGUARD 500 INDEX and determine expected loss or profit from investing in VANGUARD 500 over a given investment horizon. Also, please take a look at VANGUARD 500 Correlation, VANGUARD 500 Volatility and VANGUARD 500 Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on VANGUARD 500.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between VANGUARD 500's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine VANGUARD 500 value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VANGUARD 500's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

VANGUARD 500 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to VANGUARD 500's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of VANGUARD 500.
0.00
10/02/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 2 days
12/01/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in VANGUARD 500 on October 2, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding VANGUARD 500 INDEX or generate 0.0% return on investment in VANGUARD 500 over 60 days. VANGUARD 500 is related to or competes with HP, and FT Cboe. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard Poors 500 Index, a wi... More

VANGUARD 500 Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure VANGUARD 500's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess VANGUARD 500 INDEX upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

VANGUARD 500 Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for VANGUARD 500's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as VANGUARD 500's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use VANGUARD 500 historical prices to predict the future VANGUARD 500's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of VANGUARD 500's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of VANGUARD 500 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
364.99366.69368.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
361.32363.02403.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
373.64375.34377.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
360.42371.86383.29
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as VANGUARD 500. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against VANGUARD 500's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, VANGUARD 500's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in VANGUARD 500 INDEX.

VANGUARD 500 INDEX Backtested Returns

We consider VANGUARD 500 very steady. VANGUARD 500 INDEX owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0492, which indicates the fund had 0.0492% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our approach into measuring the volatility of a fund is to use all available market data together with fund-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for VANGUARD 500 INDEX, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the entity. Please validate VANGUARD 500 Downside Deviation of 1.4, market risk adjusted performance of 0.0368, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.036 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0836%.
The entity has a beta of 1.0814, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what VANGUARD's beta means in this case. VANGUARD 500 returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, VANGUARD 500 is expected to follow. Although it is important to respect VANGUARD 500 INDEX current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's historical returns. The approach into measuring future performance of any fund is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By examining VANGUARD 500 INDEX technical indicators, you can now evaluate if the expected return of 0.0836% will be sustainable into the future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.39  

Below average predictability

VANGUARD 500 INDEX has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between VANGUARD 500 time series from 2nd of October 2022 to 1st of November 2022 and 1st of November 2022 to 1st of December 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of VANGUARD 500 INDEX price movement. The serial correlation of 0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current VANGUARD 500 price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.39
Spearman Rank Test0.43
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance98.64

VANGUARD 500 INDEX lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is VANGUARD 500 mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting VANGUARD 500's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of VANGUARD 500 returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that VANGUARD 500 mutual fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
Share
       Timeline  

VANGUARD 500 regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If VANGUARD 500 mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if VANGUARD 500 mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in VANGUARD 500 mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

VANGUARD 500 Lagged Returns

When evaluating VANGUARD 500's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of VANGUARD 500 mutual fund have on its future price. VANGUARD 500 autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, VANGUARD 500 autocorrelation shows the relationship between VANGUARD 500 mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in VANGUARD 500 INDEX.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VANGUARD 500 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VANGUARD 500's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VANGUARD 500 options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at VANGUARD 500 Correlation, VANGUARD 500 Volatility and VANGUARD 500 Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on VANGUARD 500. Note that the VANGUARD 500 INDEX information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other VANGUARD 500's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for VANGUARD Mutual Fund analysis

When running VANGUARD 500 INDEX price analysis, check to measure VANGUARD 500's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VANGUARD 500 is operating at the current time. Most of VANGUARD 500's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VANGUARD 500's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VANGUARD 500's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VANGUARD 500 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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VANGUARD 500 technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of VANGUARD 500 technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of VANGUARD 500 trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...