US Oil Etf Market Value

USO
 Etf
  

USD 63.94  1.38  2.11%   

US Oil's market value is the price at which a share of US Oil stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of US Oil Fund investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of US Oil Fund and determine expected loss or profit from investing in US Oil over a given investment horizon. Also, please take a look at US Oil Correlation, US Oil Volatility and US Oil Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on US Oil.
Symbol

The market value of US Oil Fund is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of US Oil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of US Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is US Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because US Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect US Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between US Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine US Oil value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, US Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

US Oil 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to US Oil's etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of US Oil.
0.00
10/06/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
09/26/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in US Oil on October 6, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding US Oil Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in US Oil over 720 days. US Oil is related to or competes with SP 500, and JP Morgan. USO invests primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gas... More

US Oil Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure US Oil's etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess US Oil Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

US Oil Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for US Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as US Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use US Oil historical prices to predict the future US Oil's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of US Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of US Oil in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
63.4966.1868.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
59.3862.0772.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
62.5165.2067.89
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
64.5271.6878.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as US Oil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against US Oil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, US Oil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in US Oil Fund.

US Oil Fund Backtested Returns

US Oil Fund retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.13, which indicates the etf had -0.13% of return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. Macroaxis approach towards measuring the risk of any etf is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. US Oil exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to validate US Oil Fund mean deviation of 2.12, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12) to confirm the risk estimate we provide.
The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.4098, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what US Oil's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, US Oil returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding US Oil will be expected to be smaller as well. Even though it is essential to pay attention to US Oil Fund existing price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity price patterns. Our approach towards measuring any etf's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. US Oil exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.83  

Very good predictability

US Oil Fund has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between US Oil time series from 6th of October 2020 to 1st of October 2021 and 1st of October 2021 to 26th of September 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of US Oil Fund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current US Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.83
Spearman Rank Test0.7
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance124.44

US Oil Fund lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is US Oil etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting US Oil's etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of US Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that US Oil etf has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

US Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If US Oil etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if US Oil etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in US Oil etf over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
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       Timeline  

US Oil Lagged Returns

When evaluating US Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of US Oil etf have on its future price. US Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, US Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between US Oil etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in US Oil Fund.
   Regressed Prices   
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       Timeline  

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in US Oil without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Also, please take a look at US Oil Correlation, US Oil Volatility and US Oil Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on US Oil. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running US Oil Fund price analysis, check to measure US Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy US Oil is operating at the current time. Most of US Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of US Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move US Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of US Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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US Oil technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of US Oil technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of US Oil trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...