Ulta Beauty Stock Market Value

ULTA
 Stock
  

USD 404.76  4.45  1.09%   

Ulta Beauty's market value is the price at which a share of Ulta Beauty stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Ulta Beauty investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Ulta Beauty and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Ulta Beauty over a given investment horizon. Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Correlation, Ulta Beauty Volatility and Ulta Beauty Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ulta Beauty.
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Is Ulta Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta Beauty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta Beauty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ulta Beauty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Ulta Beauty 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ulta Beauty's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ulta Beauty.
0.00
08/31/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
09/30/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Ulta Beauty on August 31, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ulta Beauty or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ulta Beauty over 30 days. Ulta Beauty is related to or competes with Best Buy. Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States More

Ulta Beauty Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ulta Beauty's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ulta Beauty upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Ulta Beauty Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ulta Beauty's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ulta Beauty's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ulta Beauty historical prices to predict the future Ulta Beauty's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ulta Beauty in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
402.51404.31406.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
364.28462.55464.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
388.11389.91391.71
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
340.00453.10516.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ulta Beauty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ulta Beauty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ulta Beauty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ulta Beauty.

Ulta Beauty Backtested Returns

We consider Ulta Beauty very steady. Ulta Beauty owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0689, which indicates the firm had 0.0689% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ulta Beauty, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the company. Please validate Ulta Beauty Semi Deviation of 1.81, coefficient of variation of 2024.59, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0592 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%.
Ulta Beauty has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.8525, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what Ulta Beauty's beta means in this case. Ulta Beauty returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Ulta Beauty is expected to follow. Although it is important to respect Ulta Beauty current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting Ulta Beauty technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.12% will be sustainable into the future. Ulta Beauty right now has a risk of 1.81%. Please validate Ulta Beauty skewness, and the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change to decide if Ulta Beauty will be following its existing price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.69  

Very good reverse predictability

Ulta Beauty has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ulta Beauty time series from 31st of August 2022 to 15th of September 2022 and 15th of September 2022 to 30th of September 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ulta Beauty price movement. The serial correlation of -0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current Ulta Beauty price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.69
Spearman Rank Test-0.12
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance135.62

Ulta Beauty lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Ulta Beauty stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ulta Beauty's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ulta Beauty returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ulta Beauty stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

Ulta Beauty regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ulta Beauty stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ulta Beauty stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ulta Beauty stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
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       Timeline  

Ulta Beauty Lagged Returns

When evaluating Ulta Beauty's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ulta Beauty stock have on its future price. Ulta Beauty autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ulta Beauty autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ulta Beauty stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ulta Beauty.
   Regressed Prices   
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       Timeline  

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Ulta Beauty without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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When running Ulta Beauty price analysis, check to measure Ulta Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ulta Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Ulta Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ulta Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ulta Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Ulta Beauty technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Ulta Beauty technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Ulta Beauty trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...