Twilio Stock Market Value

TWLO
 Stock
  

USD 46.04  0.74  1.63%   

Twilio's market value is the price at which a share of Twilio stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Twilio Inc investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Twilio Inc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Twilio over a given investment horizon. Additionally, take a look at Twilio Correlation, Twilio Volatility and Twilio Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Twilio.
Symbol


Is Twilio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Twilio. If investors know Twilio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Twilio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
8.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.328
Return On Assets
(0.05) 
Return On Equity
(0.12) 
The market value of Twilio Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Twilio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Twilio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Twilio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Twilio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Twilio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Twilio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Twilio value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Twilio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Twilio 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Twilio's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Twilio.
0.00
11/09/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
12/09/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Twilio on November 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Twilio Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Twilio over 30 days. Twilio is related to or competes with EON SE, Constellation Energy, PPL, Centrais Eltricas, Hong Kong, and National Grid. Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud communications platform that enables developers to build, ... More

Twilio Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Twilio's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Twilio Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Twilio Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Twilio's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Twilio's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Twilio historical prices to predict the future Twilio's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Twilio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Twilio in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
41.7248.1754.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
41.21141.91148.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
40.9247.3753.82
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
350.00434.40550.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Twilio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Twilio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Twilio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Twilio Inc.

Twilio Inc Backtested Returns

Twilio Inc owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0869, which indicates the firm had -0.0869% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards measuring the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Twilio Inc exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to validate Twilio risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,727) to confirm the risk estimate we provide.
The entity has a beta of 1.87, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Twilio's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Twilio will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Twilio Inc current price movements, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical returns. Our philosophy towards measuring any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Twilio Inc exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Twilio Inc has an expected return of -0.56%. Please be advised to validate Twilio semi variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power to decide if Twilio Inc performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.20  

Weak predictability

Twilio Inc has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Twilio time series from 9th of November 2022 to 24th of November 2022 and 24th of November 2022 to 9th of December 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Twilio Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Twilio price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.2
Spearman Rank Test-0.22
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance2.33

Twilio Inc lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Twilio stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Twilio's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Twilio returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Twilio stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

Twilio regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Twilio stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Twilio stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Twilio stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Twilio Lagged Returns

When evaluating Twilio's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Twilio stock have on its future price. Twilio autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Twilio autocorrelation shows the relationship between Twilio stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Twilio Inc.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Twilio Investors Sentiment

The influence of Twilio's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Twilio. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Twilio's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Twilio. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Twilio can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Twilio Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Twilio's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Twilio's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Twilio's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Twilio.

Twilio Implied Volatility

    
  108.44  
Twilio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Twilio Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Twilio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Twilio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Twilio's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Twilio in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Twilio's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Twilio options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Twilio Correlation, Twilio Volatility and Twilio Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Twilio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Twilio Inc price analysis, check to measure Twilio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Twilio is operating at the current time. Most of Twilio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Twilio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Twilio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Twilio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Twilio technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Twilio technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Twilio trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...