Timken Stock Market Value

TKR
 Stock
  

USD 75.07  1.41  1.91%   

Timken's market value is the price at which a share of Timken stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Timken Company investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Timken Company and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Timken over a given investment horizon. Additionally, take a look at Timken Correlation, Timken Volatility and Timken Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Timken.
Symbol


Is Timken's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Timken. If investors know Timken will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Timken listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.035
Market Capitalization
5.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.096
Return On Assets
0.074
Return On Equity
0.17
The market value of Timken Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Timken that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Timken's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Timken's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Timken's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Timken's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Timken's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Timken value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Timken's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Timken 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Timken's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Timken.
0.00
09/05/2021
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 2 months and 26 days
11/29/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Timken on September 5, 2021 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Timken Company or generate 0.0% return on investment in Timken over 450 days. Timken is related to or competes with Applied Industrial, Avery Dennison, Fastenal, Flowserve Corp, Genuine Parts, WW Grainger, and ITT. The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and manages engineered bearings and power transmission products worldwide More

Timken Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Timken's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Timken Company upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Timken Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Timken's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Timken's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Timken historical prices to predict the future Timken's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Timken's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Timken in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
71.1173.2375.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
71.4873.6075.72
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
74.2676.3878.50
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
72.0085.33100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Timken. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Timken's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Timken's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Timken Company.

Timken Company Backtested Returns

Timken appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Timken Company owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which indicates the firm had 0.13% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Timken Company, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the company. Please review Timken's Semi Deviation of 1.94, coefficient of variation of 1205.03, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1213 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
On a scale of 0 to 100, Timken holds a performance score of 10. The entity has a beta of 1.1477, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Timken's beta means in this case. Timken returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Timken is expected to follow. Although it is vital to follow Timken Company current price movements, it is good to be conservative about what you can do with the information regarding equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting Timken Company technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.28% will be sustainable into the future. Please operates Timken standard deviation, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the Value At Risk and kurtosis to make a quick decision on whether Timken Company existing price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.65  

Very good reverse predictability

Timken Company has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Timken time series from 5th of September 2021 to 18th of April 2022 and 18th of April 2022 to 29th of November 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Timken Company price movement. The serial correlation of -0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Timken price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.65
Spearman Rank Test-0.35
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance33.58

Timken Company lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Timken stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Timken's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Timken returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Timken stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
Share
       Timeline  

Timken regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Timken stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Timken stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Timken stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Timken Lagged Returns

When evaluating Timken's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Timken stock have on its future price. Timken autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Timken autocorrelation shows the relationship between Timken stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Timken Company.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Timken without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Timken Correlation, Timken Volatility and Timken Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Timken. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Timken Company price analysis, check to measure Timken's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Timken is operating at the current time. Most of Timken's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Timken's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Timken's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Timken to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Timken technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Timken technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Timken trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...