Origin Stock Market Value

SEED
 Stock
  

USD 7.42  0.10  1.33%   

Origin Agritech's market value is the price at which a share of Origin Agritech stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Origin Agritech investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Origin Agritech and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Origin Agritech over a given investment horizon. Additionally, take a look at Origin Agritech Hype Analysis, Origin Agritech Correlation, Origin Agritech Valuation, Origin Agritech Volatility, as well as analyze Origin Agritech Alpha and Beta and Origin Agritech Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Is Origin Agritech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Agritech. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Agritech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Origin Agritech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Agritech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Agritech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Agritech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Agritech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Agritech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Origin Agritech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Agritech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Origin Agritech 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Origin Agritech's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Origin Agritech.
0.00
05/02/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 2 days
07/01/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Origin Agritech on May 2, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Origin Agritech or generate 0.0% return on investment in Origin Agritech over 60 days. Origin Agritech is related to or competes with Pfizer, Perrigo, Seagen, Trinity Bio, Zoetis Inc, Avnet, and Genesis Unicorn. Origin Agritech Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates an agricultural biotechnology and an e-commerce platfo...More

Origin Agritech Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Origin Agritech's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Origin Agritech upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Origin Agritech Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Origin Agritech's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Origin Agritech's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Origin Agritech historical prices to predict the future Origin Agritech's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Agritech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Origin Agritech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.787.4313.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.077.7213.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
1.857.5013.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.277.739.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Origin Agritech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Origin Agritech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Origin Agritech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Origin Agritech.

Origin Agritech Backtested Returns

Origin Agritech maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.0067, which implies the firm had -0.0067% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards forecasting the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Origin Agritech exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to check Origin Agritech Coefficient Of Variation of 54623.73, semi deviation of 5.08, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.01 to confirm the risk estimate we provide.
The company holds a Beta of 1.4181, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Origin's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Origin Agritech will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Origin Agritech current trending patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity existing price patterns. Our philosophy towards forecasting any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Origin Agritech exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Origin Agritech has an expected return of -0.038%. Please be advised to check Origin Agritech downside variance, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness to decide if Origin Agritech performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.06  

Virtually no predictability

Origin Agritech has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Origin Agritech time series from 2nd of May 2022 to 1st of June 2022 and 1st of June 2022 to 1st of July 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Origin Agritech price movement. The serial correlation of 0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Origin Agritech price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.06
Spearman Rank Test-0.33
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.17

Origin Agritech lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Origin Agritech stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Origin Agritech's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Origin Agritech returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Origin Agritech stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Origin Agritech regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Origin Agritech stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Origin Agritech stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Origin Agritech stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Origin Agritech Lagged Returns

When evaluating Origin Agritech's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Origin Agritech stock have on its future price. Origin Agritech autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Origin Agritech autocorrelation shows the relationship between Origin Agritech stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Origin Agritech.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Origin Agritech without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Origin Agritech Hype Analysis, Origin Agritech Correlation, Origin Agritech Valuation, Origin Agritech Volatility, as well as analyze Origin Agritech Alpha and Beta and Origin Agritech Performance. Note that the Origin Agritech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Origin Agritech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for Origin Stock analysis

When running Origin Agritech price analysis, check to measure Origin Agritech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Agritech is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Agritech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Agritech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Agritech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Agritech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Origin Agritech technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Origin Agritech technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Origin Agritech trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...