Penn National Stock Market Value

PENN
 Stock
  

USD 35.19  1.12  3.29%   

Penn National's market value is the price at which a share of Penn National stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Penn National Gaming investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Penn National Gaming and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Penn National over a given investment horizon. Please check Penn National Correlation, Penn National Volatility and Penn National Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Penn National.
Symbol


Is Penn National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. If investors know Penn National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.38
Market Capitalization
5.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.075
Return On Assets
0.0428
Return On Equity
0.0735
The market value of Penn National Gaming is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penn National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Penn National value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Penn National 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Penn National's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Penn National.
0.00
12/11/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 21 days
12/01/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Penn National on December 11, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Penn National Gaming or generate 0.0% return on investment in Penn National over 720 days. Penn National is related to or competes with International Game, Enphase Energy, Boeing, Teekay, B of A, PepsiCo, and Hilton Worldwide. PENN Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated entertainment, sports content, and casino ... More

Penn National Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Penn National's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Penn National Gaming upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Penn National Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Penn National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Penn National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Penn National historical prices to predict the future Penn National's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penn National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Penn National in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.4834.8238.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.6746.7250.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
29.8233.1636.49
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
38.0083.69150.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Penn National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Penn National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Penn National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Penn National Gaming.

Penn National Gaming Backtested Returns

Penn National appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Penn National Gaming maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.073, which implies the firm had 0.073% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards forecasting the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Penn National Gaming, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the company. Please evaluate Penn National's Coefficient Of Variation of 1718.46, risk adjusted performance of 0.0921, and Semi Deviation of 3.19 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
On a scale of 0 to 100, Penn National holds a performance score of 5. The company holds a Beta of 1.6433, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Penn National's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Penn National will likely underperform. Although it is important to respect Penn National Gaming current trending patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's existing price patterns. The philosophy towards forecasting future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Penn National Gaming technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.24% will be sustainable into the future. Please employ Penn National Gaming maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the expected short fall and rate of daily change to make a quick decision on whether Penn National historical price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.69  

Good predictability

Penn National Gaming has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Penn National time series from 11th of December 2020 to 6th of December 2021 and 6th of December 2021 to 1st of December 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Penn National Gaming price movement. The serial correlation of 0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current Penn National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.69
Spearman Rank Test0.67
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance52.6

Penn National Gaming lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Penn National stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Penn National's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Penn National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Penn National stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

Penn National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Penn National stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Penn National stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Penn National stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
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       Timeline  

Penn National Lagged Returns

When evaluating Penn National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Penn National stock have on its future price. Penn National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Penn National autocorrelation shows the relationship between Penn National stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Penn National Gaming.
   Regressed Prices   
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       Timeline  

Penn National Investors Sentiment

The influence of Penn National's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Penn National. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Penn National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Penn National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penn National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Penn National Gaming. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Penn National's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Penn National's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Penn National's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Penn National.

Penn National Implied Volatility

    
  84.17  
Penn National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penn National Gaming stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penn National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penn National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penn National's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Penn National in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Penn National's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Penn National options trading.

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Please check Penn National Correlation, Penn National Volatility and Penn National Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Penn National. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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When running Penn National Gaming price analysis, check to measure Penn National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Penn National is operating at the current time. Most of Penn National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Penn National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Penn National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Penn National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Penn National technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Penn National technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Penn National trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...