Murphy Stock Market Value

MUSA
 Stock
  

USD 291.83  3.82  1.33%   

Murphy USA's market value is the price at which a share of Murphy USA stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Murphy USA investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Murphy USA and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Murphy USA over a given investment horizon. Additionally, see Murphy USA Hype Analysis, Murphy USA Correlation, Murphy USA Valuation, Murphy USA Volatility, as well as analyze Murphy USA Alpha and Beta and Murphy USA Performance.
Symbol


Is Murphy USA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy USA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.57
Market Capitalization
6.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.58
Return On Assets
0.12
Return On Equity
0.72
The market value of Murphy USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy USA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy USA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy USA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy USA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Murphy USA value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Murphy USA 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Murphy USA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Murphy USA.
0.00
06/14/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 1 day
08/13/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Murphy USA on June 14, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Murphy USA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Murphy USA over 60 days. Murphy USA is related to or competes with American Express, Verizon Communications, Alphabet, B of A, Johnson Johnson, Caterpillar, and International Business. Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandiseMore

Murphy USA Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Murphy USA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Murphy USA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Murphy USA Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Murphy USA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Murphy USA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Murphy USA historical prices to predict the future Murphy USA's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Murphy USA in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
290.35292.64294.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
265.26267.55321.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
295.30297.59299.88
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00190.75205.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Murphy USA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Murphy USA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Murphy USA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Murphy USA.

Murphy USA Backtested Returns

Murphy USA appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Murphy USA has Sharpe Ratio of 0.1, which conveys that the firm had 0.1% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards estimating the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Murphy USA, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please exercise Murphy USA's Mean Deviation of 1.62, downside deviation of 2.54, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1929 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
On a scale of 0 to 100, Murphy USA holds a performance score of 7. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.2133, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Murphy's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Murphy USA returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Murphy USA will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is important to respect Murphy USA price patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's historical price patterns. The philosophy towards estimating future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Murphy USA technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.23% will be sustainable into the future. Please exercises Murphy USA semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution to make a quick decision on whether Murphy USA current price movements will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.60  

Good predictability

Murphy USA has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Murphy USA time series from 14th of June 2022 to 14th of July 2022 and 14th of July 2022 to 13th of August 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Murphy USA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Murphy USA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.6
Spearman Rank Test0.74
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance70.45

Murphy USA lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Murphy USA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Murphy USA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Murphy USA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Murphy USA stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
Share
       Timeline  

Murphy USA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Murphy USA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Murphy USA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Murphy USA stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Murphy USA Lagged Returns

When evaluating Murphy USA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Murphy USA stock have on its future price. Murphy USA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Murphy USA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Murphy USA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Murphy USA.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Murphy USA without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Premium Stories Now

   

Premium Stories

Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
All  Next Launch Module

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Murphy USA using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Additionally, see Murphy USA Hype Analysis, Murphy USA Correlation, Murphy USA Valuation, Murphy USA Volatility, as well as analyze Murphy USA Alpha and Beta and Murphy USA Performance. Note that the Murphy USA information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Murphy USA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for Murphy Stock analysis

When running Murphy USA price analysis, check to measure Murphy USA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy USA is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy USA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy USA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy USA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy USA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Go
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Murphy USA technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Murphy USA technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Murphy USA trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...