Merger Mutual Fund Market Value

MERFX
 Fund
  

USD 17.45  0.02  0.11%   

Merger Fund's market value is the price at which a share of Merger Fund stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Merger Fund investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Merger Fund and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Merger Fund over a given investment horizon. Additionally, see Merger Fund Hype Analysis, Merger Fund Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Merger Fund Volatility, as well as analyze Merger Fund Alpha and Beta and Merger Fund Performance.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Merger Fund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merger Fund value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merger Fund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Merger Fund 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Merger Fund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Merger Fund.
0.00
07/14/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
08/13/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Merger Fund on July 14, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Merger Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Merger Fund over 30 days. Merger Fund is related to or competes with Pfizer. The investment seeks capital growth by engaging in merger arbitrageMore

Merger Fund Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Merger Fund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Merger Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Merger Fund Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Merger Fund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Merger Fund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Merger Fund historical prices to predict the future Merger Fund's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merger Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merger Fund in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.000.26
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
17.2917.5517.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.9617.2217.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merger Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merger Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merger Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merger Fund.

Merger Fund Backtested Returns

We consider Merger Fund out of control. Merger Fund has Sharpe Ratio of 0.17, which conveys that the entity had 0.17% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards estimating the volatility of a fund is to use all available market data together with fund-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Merger Fund, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the fund. Please verify Merger Fund Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1354, mean deviation of 0.1815, and Downside Deviation of 0.2743 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0443%.
The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.1473, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Merger's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Merger Fund returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merger Fund will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is important to respect Merger Fund price patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's historical price patterns. The philosophy towards estimating future performance of any fund is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Merger Fund technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0443% will be sustainable into the future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.85  

Very good predictability

Merger Fund has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Merger Fund time series from 14th of July 2022 to 29th of July 2022 and 29th of July 2022 to 13th of August 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Merger Fund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.85 indicates that around 85.0% of current Merger Fund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.85
Spearman Rank Test0.75
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.01

Merger Fund lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Merger Fund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Merger Fund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Merger Fund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Merger Fund mutual fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

Merger Fund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Merger Fund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Merger Fund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Merger Fund mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
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       Timeline  

Merger Fund Lagged Returns

When evaluating Merger Fund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Merger Fund mutual fund have on its future price. Merger Fund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Merger Fund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Merger Fund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Merger Fund.
   Regressed Prices   
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       Timeline  

Merger Fund Investors Sentiment

The influence of Merger Fund's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Merger. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Merger Fund in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Merger Fund's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Merger Fund options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Merger Fund using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Merger Fund Hype Analysis, Merger Fund Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Merger Fund Volatility, as well as analyze Merger Fund Alpha and Beta and Merger Fund Performance. Note that the Merger Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merger Fund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Merger Mutual Fund analysis

When running Merger Fund price analysis, check to measure Merger Fund's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merger Fund is operating at the current time. Most of Merger Fund's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merger Fund's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merger Fund's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merger Fund to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Merger Fund technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Merger Fund technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Merger Fund trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...