Moleculin Stock Market Value

MBRX -  USA Stock  

USD 1.46  0.07  5.04%

Moleculin Biotech's market value is the price at which a share of Moleculin Biotech stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Moleculin Biotech CS investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Moleculin Biotech CS and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Moleculin Biotech over a given investment horizon. Additionally, see Moleculin Biotech Hype Analysis, Moleculin Biotech Correlation, Moleculin Biotech Valuation, Moleculin Biotech Volatility, as well as analyze Moleculin Biotech Alpha and Beta and Moleculin Biotech Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Is Moleculin Biotech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moleculin Biotech. If investors know Moleculin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moleculin Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
41.7 M
Return On Assets
-0.17
Return On Equity
-0.23
The market value of Moleculin Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moleculin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moleculin Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moleculin Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moleculin Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moleculin Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moleculin Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moleculin Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moleculin Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Moleculin Biotech 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Moleculin Biotech's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Moleculin Biotech.
0.00
07/06/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
06/26/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Moleculin Biotech on July 6, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Moleculin Biotech CS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Moleculin Biotech over 720 days. Moleculin Biotech is related to or competes with Johnson Johnson. Moleculin Biotech, Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of drug candidates for the ...More

Moleculin Biotech Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Moleculin Biotech's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Moleculin Biotech CS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Moleculin Biotech Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Moleculin Biotech's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Moleculin Biotech's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Moleculin Biotech historical prices to predict the future Moleculin Biotech's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moleculin Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moleculin Biotech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.071.465.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.315.869.79
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0267241.345.27
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0019.0029.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moleculin Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moleculin Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moleculin Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moleculin Biotech.

Moleculin Biotech Backtested Returns

Moleculin Biotech has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0465, which conveys that the firm had -0.0465% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Moleculin Biotech exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to verify Moleculin Biotech CS risk adjusted performance of 0.0049, and Mean Deviation of 3.03 to check out the risk estimate we provide.
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.0042, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Moleculin's beta means in this case. Moleculin Biotech returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Moleculin Biotech is expected to follow. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Moleculin Biotech price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Moleculin Biotech exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Moleculin Biotech has an expected return of -0.18%. Please be advised to verify Moleculin Biotech CS maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day typical price to decide if Moleculin Biotech performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.57  

Modest predictability

Moleculin Biotech CS has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Moleculin Biotech time series from 6th of July 2020 to 1st of July 2021 and 1st of July 2021 to 26th of June 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Moleculin Biotech price movement. The serial correlation of 0.57 indicates that roughly 57.0% of current Moleculin Biotech price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.57
Spearman Rank Test0.65
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.49

Moleculin Biotech lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Moleculin Biotech stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Moleculin Biotech's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Moleculin Biotech returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Moleculin Biotech stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
Share
      Timeline 

Moleculin Biotech regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Moleculin Biotech stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Moleculin Biotech stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Moleculin Biotech stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

Moleculin Biotech Lagged Returns

When evaluating Moleculin Biotech's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Moleculin Biotech stock have on its future price. Moleculin Biotech autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Moleculin Biotech autocorrelation shows the relationship between Moleculin Biotech stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Moleculin Biotech CS.
 Regressed Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

Moleculin Biotech Investors Sentiment

The influence of Moleculin Biotech's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Moleculin. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Moleculin Biotech in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Moleculin Biotech's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Moleculin Biotech options trading.

Current Sentiment - MBRX

Moleculin Biotech Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Moleculin Biotech CS. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Moleculin Biotech CS? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

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Additionally, see Moleculin Biotech Hype Analysis, Moleculin Biotech Correlation, Moleculin Biotech Valuation, Moleculin Biotech Volatility, as well as analyze Moleculin Biotech Alpha and Beta and Moleculin Biotech Performance. Note that the Moleculin Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moleculin Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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When running Moleculin Biotech price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Moleculin Biotech technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Moleculin Biotech technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Moleculin Biotech trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...