Moleculin Stock Market Value

MBRX
 Stock
  

USD 1.76  0.01  0.56%   

Moleculin Biotech's market value is the price at which a share of Moleculin Biotech stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Moleculin Biotech CS investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Moleculin Biotech CS and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Moleculin Biotech over a given investment horizon. Additionally, see Moleculin Biotech Correlation, Moleculin Biotech Volatility and Moleculin Biotech Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Moleculin Biotech.
Symbol


Is Moleculin Biotech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moleculin Biotech. If investors know Moleculin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moleculin Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
50.6 M
Return On Assets
-0.19
Return On Equity
-0.28
The market value of Moleculin Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moleculin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moleculin Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moleculin Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moleculin Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moleculin Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moleculin Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moleculin Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moleculin Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Moleculin Biotech 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Moleculin Biotech's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Moleculin Biotech.
0.00
08/28/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
08/18/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Moleculin Biotech on August 28, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Moleculin Biotech CS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Moleculin Biotech over 720 days. Moleculin Biotech is related to or competes with Disney. Moleculin Biotech, Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of drug candidates for the ... More

Moleculin Biotech Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Moleculin Biotech's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Moleculin Biotech CS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Moleculin Biotech Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Moleculin Biotech's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Moleculin Biotech's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Moleculin Biotech historical prices to predict the future Moleculin Biotech's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moleculin Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moleculin Biotech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.091.735.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.606.1210.10
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0391181.965.94
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0019.0029.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moleculin Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moleculin Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moleculin Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moleculin Biotech.

Moleculin Biotech Backtested Returns

Moleculin Biotech appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Moleculin Biotech has Sharpe Ratio of 0.14, which conveys that the firm had 0.14% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards estimating the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. By analyzing Moleculin Biotech technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.57% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise Moleculin Biotech's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2007, mean deviation of 2.81, and Downside Deviation of 3.48 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
On a scale of 0 to 100, Moleculin Biotech holds a performance score of 10. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.9896, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what Moleculin's beta means in this case. Moleculin Biotech returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Moleculin Biotech is expected to follow. Although it is vital to follow Moleculin Biotech price patterns, it is good to be conservative about what you can do with the information regarding equity historical price patterns. The philosophy towards estimating future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Moleculin Biotech, which you can use to evaluate the performance of the firm. Please exercises Moleculin Biotech CS maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day typical price to make a quick decision on whether Moleculin Biotech current price movements will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.38  

Below average predictability

Moleculin Biotech CS has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Moleculin Biotech time series from 28th of August 2020 to 23rd of August 2021 and 23rd of August 2021 to 18th of August 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Moleculin Biotech price movement. The serial correlation of 0.38 indicates that just about 38.0% of current Moleculin Biotech price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.38
Spearman Rank Test0.46
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.31

Moleculin Biotech lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Moleculin Biotech stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Moleculin Biotech's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Moleculin Biotech returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Moleculin Biotech stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
Share
       Timeline  

Moleculin Biotech regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Moleculin Biotech stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Moleculin Biotech stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Moleculin Biotech stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Moleculin Biotech Lagged Returns

When evaluating Moleculin Biotech's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Moleculin Biotech stock have on its future price. Moleculin Biotech autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Moleculin Biotech autocorrelation shows the relationship between Moleculin Biotech stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Moleculin Biotech CS.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Moleculin Biotech in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Moleculin Biotech's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Moleculin Biotech options trading.

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Additionally, see Moleculin Biotech Correlation, Moleculin Biotech Volatility and Moleculin Biotech Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Moleculin Biotech. Note that the Moleculin Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moleculin Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for Moleculin Stock analysis

When running Moleculin Biotech price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Moleculin Biotech technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Moleculin Biotech technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Moleculin Biotech trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...