Harley Stock Market Value

HOG -  USA Stock  

USD 38.22  1.61  4.40%

Harley Davidson's market value is the price at which a share of Harley Davidson stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Harley-Davidson investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Harley-Davidson and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Harley Davidson over a given investment horizon. Please check Harley Davidson Hype Analysis, Harley Davidson Correlation, Harley Davidson Valuation, Harley Davidson Volatility, as well as analyze Harley Davidson Alpha and Beta and Harley Davidson Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Is Harley Davidson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Harley-Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Harley Davidson value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Harley Davidson 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Harley Davidson's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Harley Davidson.
0.00
04/17/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
05/17/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Harley Davidson on April 17, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Harley-Davidson or generate 0.0% return on investment in Harley Davidson over 30 days. Harley Davidson is related to or competes with Malibu Boats, Mcbc Holdings, Fox Factory, Camping World, BRP, Marine Products, and LCI Industries. Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles

Harley Davidson Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Harley Davidson's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Harley-Davidson upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Harley Davidson Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Harley Davidson's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Harley Davidson's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Harley Davidson historical prices to predict the future Harley Davidson's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harley Davidson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Harley Davidson in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
34.7737.8840.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.0642.5545.66
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
38.0046.8670.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.803.923.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harley Davidson. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harley Davidson's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harley Davidson's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Harley-Davidson.

Harley-Davidson Backtested Returns

Harley-Davidson holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0404, which attests that the entity had -0.0404% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards determining the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Harley-Davidson exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to check out Harley Davidson risk adjusted performance of (0.07), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09) to validate the risk estimate we provide.
The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.8206, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Harley's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Harley Davidson will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Harley-Davidson current price history, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current price movements. Our philosophy towards determining any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Harley-Davidson exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Harley-Davidson has an expected return of -0.13%. Please be advised to check out Harley Davidson semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution to decide if Harley-Davidson performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.77  

Good predictability

Harley-Davidson has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Harley Davidson time series from 17th of April 2022 to 2nd of May 2022 and 2nd of May 2022 to 17th of May 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Harley-Davidson price movement. The serial correlation of 0.77 indicates that around 77.0% of current Harley Davidson price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.77
Spearman Rank Test0.09
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance2.21

Harley-Davidson lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Harley Davidson stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Harley Davidson's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Harley Davidson returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Harley Davidson stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Harley Davidson regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Harley Davidson stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Harley Davidson stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Harley Davidson stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Harley Davidson Lagged Returns

When evaluating Harley Davidson's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Harley Davidson stock have on its future price. Harley Davidson autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Harley Davidson autocorrelation shows the relationship between Harley Davidson stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Harley-Davidson.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Harley Davidson Investors Sentiment

The influence of Harley Davidson's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Harley. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Harley Davidson Implied Volatility

    
  65.22  
Harley Davidson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Harley-Davidson stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Harley Davidson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Harley Davidson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Harley Davidson's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Harley Davidson in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Harley Davidson's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Harley Davidson options trading.

Current Sentiment - HOG

Harley-Davidson Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Harley-Davidson. What is your judgment towards investing in Harley-Davidson? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please check Harley Davidson Hype Analysis, Harley Davidson Correlation, Harley Davidson Valuation, Harley Davidson Volatility, as well as analyze Harley Davidson Alpha and Beta and Harley Davidson Performance. Note that the Harley-Davidson information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harley Davidson's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running Harley-Davidson price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Harley Davidson technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Harley Davidson technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Harley Davidson trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...