National Stock Market Value

EYE -  USA Stock  

USD 28.04  0.14  0.50%

National Vision's market value is the price at which a share of National Vision stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of National Vision Holdings investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of National Vision Holdings and determine expected loss or profit from investing in National Vision over a given investment horizon. Continue to National Vision Hype Analysis, National Vision Correlation, National Vision Valuation, National Vision Volatility, as well as analyze National Vision Alpha and Beta and National Vision Performance.
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Is National Vision's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National Vision value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

National Vision 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Vision's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Vision.
0.00
11/29/2021
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 5 months and 30 days
05/28/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in National Vision on November 29, 2021 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Vision Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Vision over 180 days. National Vision is related to or competes with Build-A-Bear Workshop, Bed Bath, Boqii Holding, Dicks Sporting, Lands End, Envela Corp, and Big 5. National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States

National Vision Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Vision's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Vision Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

National Vision Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Vision's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Vision's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Vision historical prices to predict the future National Vision's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of National Vision in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
22.1426.6031.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
24.2834.2938.75
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0060.2570.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.141.141.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Vision. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Vision's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Vision's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in National Vision Holdings.

National Vision Holdings Backtested Returns

National Vision Holdings has Sharpe Ratio of -0.069, which conveys that the firm had -0.069% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. National Vision exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to verify National Vision Holdings risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Mean Deviation of 2.7 to check out the risk estimate we provide.
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.2187, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what National's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, National Vision will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to National Vision Holdings price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. National Vision exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. National Vision Holdings has an expected return of -0.31%. Please be advised to verify National Vision Holdings semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution to decide if National Vision Holdings performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.61  

Good predictability

National Vision Holdings has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Vision time series from 29th of November 2021 to 27th of February 2022 and 27th of February 2022 to 28th of May 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Vision Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of 0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current National Vision price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.61
Spearman Rank Test0.48
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance42.84

National Vision Holdings lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is National Vision stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Vision's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Vision returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Vision stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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National Vision regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Vision stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Vision stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Vision stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

National Vision Lagged Returns

When evaluating National Vision's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Vision stock have on its future price. National Vision autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Vision autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Vision stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Vision Holdings.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in National Vision without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
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Pair Trading with National Vision

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Vision position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Vision will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

National Vision Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to National Vision could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace National Vision when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back National Vision - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling National Vision Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of National Vision is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as National Vision moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if National Vision Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for National Vision can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to National Vision Hype Analysis, National Vision Correlation, National Vision Valuation, National Vision Volatility, as well as analyze National Vision Alpha and Beta and National Vision Performance. Note that the National Vision Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Vision's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis

When running National Vision Holdings price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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National Vision technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of National Vision technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of National Vision trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...