Ducommun Stock Market Value

DCO
 Stock
  

USD 51.12  0.09  0.18%   

Ducommun's market value is the price at which a share of Ducommun stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Ducommun investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Ducommun and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Ducommun over a given investment horizon. Continue to Ducommun Correlation, Ducommun Volatility and Ducommun Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ducommun.
Symbol


Is Ducommun's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ducommun. If investors know Ducommun will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ducommun listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.12) 
Market Capitalization
619.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
0.0313
Return On Equity
30.32
The market value of Ducommun is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ducommun that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ducommun's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ducommun's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ducommun's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ducommun's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ducommun's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ducommun value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ducommun's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Ducommun 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ducommun's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ducommun.
0.00
12/07/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 21 days
11/27/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Ducommun on December 7, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ducommun or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ducommun over 720 days. Ducommun is related to or competes with General Dynamics, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Sanrio. Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing products and services primarily to the aerospace and defens... More

Ducommun Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ducommun's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ducommun upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Ducommun Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ducommun's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ducommun's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ducommun historical prices to predict the future Ducommun's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ducommun's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ducommun in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
48.7451.0053.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
46.0156.4158.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
48.8051.0653.32
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
62.0067.3372.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ducommun. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ducommun's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ducommun's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ducommun.

Ducommun Backtested Returns

Ducommun appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Ducommun secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1, which denotes the company had 0.1% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in predicting the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ducommun, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please utilize Ducommun's Mean Deviation of 1.71, downside deviation of 1.9, and Semi Deviation of 1.77 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
On a scale of 0 to 100, Ducommun holds a performance score of 7. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.1589, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Ducommun's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Ducommun will likely underperform. Although it is important to respect Ducommun historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's current trending patterns. The philosophy in predicting future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By reviewing Ducommun technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.23% will be sustainable into the future. Please utilizes Ducommun potential upside, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and skewness to make a quick decision on whether Ducommun price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.43  

Average predictability

Ducommun has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ducommun time series from 7th of December 2020 to 2nd of December 2021 and 2nd of December 2021 to 27th of November 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ducommun price movement. The serial correlation of 0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current Ducommun price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.43
Spearman Rank Test0.19
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance15.39

Ducommun lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Ducommun stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ducommun's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ducommun returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ducommun stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
Share
       Timeline  

Ducommun regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ducommun stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ducommun stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ducommun stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Ducommun Lagged Returns

When evaluating Ducommun's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ducommun stock have on its future price. Ducommun autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ducommun autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ducommun stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ducommun.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Ducommun Investors Sentiment

The influence of Ducommun's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Ducommun. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Ducommun's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Ducommun. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ducommun can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ducommun. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Ducommun's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Ducommun's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Ducommun's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Ducommun.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ducommun in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ducommun's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ducommun options trading.

Pair Trading with Ducommun

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ducommun position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ducommun will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Ducommun

+0.9SUSuncor Energy Potential GrowthPairCorr
+0.81RLXRLX Technology Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.93MRNAModerna Potential GrowthPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ducommun could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ducommun when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ducommun - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ducommun to buy it.
The correlation of Ducommun is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ducommun moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ducommun moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ducommun can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Ducommun Correlation, Ducommun Volatility and Ducommun Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ducommun. Note that the Ducommun information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ducommun's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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When running Ducommun price analysis, check to measure Ducommun's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ducommun is operating at the current time. Most of Ducommun's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ducommun's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ducommun's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ducommun to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Ducommun technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Ducommun technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Ducommun trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...