Bitcoin Market Value

BTC
 Crypto
  

USD 18,895  388.42  2.01%   

Bitcoin's market value is the price at which a share of Bitcoin stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Bitcoin investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Bitcoin and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Bitcoin over a given investment horizon. Continue to Bitcoin Browser, Bitcoin Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Bitcoin Volatility, as well as analyze Investing Opportunities and Bitcoin Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Please note, there is a significant difference between Bitcoin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bitcoin value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bitcoin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Bitcoin 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Bitcoin's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Bitcoin.
0.00
05/02/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 2 days
07/01/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Bitcoin on May 2, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Bitcoin or generate 0.0% return on investment in Bitcoin over 60 days. Bitcoin is related to or competes with Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, IOTA, and ZCash. Bitcoin is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technologyMore

Bitcoin Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Bitcoin's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Bitcoin upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Bitcoin Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Bitcoin's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Bitcoin's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Bitcoin historical prices to predict the future Bitcoin's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bitcoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bitcoin in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17,00519,89319,898
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
18,13418,13920,784
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
19,80819,81319,817
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16,43530,92945,424
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bitcoin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bitcoin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bitcoin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Backtested Returns

Bitcoin secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.26, which signifies that digital coin had -0.26% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards foreseeing the risk of any crypto is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Bitcoin exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Bitcoin mean deviation of 3.31, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.35) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
The crypto shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.0866, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Bitcoin's beta means in this case. Bitcoin returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Bitcoin is expected to follow. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Bitcoin historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy towards foreseeing any crypto's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Bitcoin exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.70  

Good predictability

Bitcoin has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Bitcoin time series from 2nd of May 2022 to 1st of June 2022 and 1st of June 2022 to 1st of July 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Bitcoin price movement. The serial correlation of 0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Bitcoin price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.7
Spearman Rank Test0.48
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance2.079629348E7

Bitcoin lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Bitcoin crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Bitcoin's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Bitcoin returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Bitcoin crypto coin has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Bitcoin regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Bitcoin crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Bitcoin crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Bitcoin crypto coin over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Bitcoin Lagged Returns

When evaluating Bitcoin's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Bitcoin crypto coin have on its future price. Bitcoin autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Bitcoin autocorrelation shows the relationship between Bitcoin crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Bitcoin.
 Regressed Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

Bitcoin Investors Sentiment

The influence of Bitcoin's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Bitcoin. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bitcoin in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bitcoin's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bitcoin options trading.

Current Sentiment - BTC

Bitcoin Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Bitcoin. What is your opinion about investing in Bitcoin? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with Bitcoin

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bitcoin position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bitcoin will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Bitcoin Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bitcoin could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bitcoin when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bitcoin - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bitcoin to buy it.
The correlation of Bitcoin is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bitcoin moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bitcoin moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bitcoin can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Bitcoin Browser, Bitcoin Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Bitcoin Volatility, as well as analyze Investing Opportunities and Bitcoin Performance. Note that the Bitcoin information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bitcoin's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Other Tools for Bitcoin Crypto Coin

When running Bitcoin price analysis, check to measure Bitcoin's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bitcoin is operating at the current time. Most of Bitcoin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bitcoin's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bitcoin's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bitcoin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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